WEEK TO WEEK...................... With weather and its impact on yields being 90% of our daily and weekly pricing influence, were seeing huge weekly ranges. Last week's wet forecast broke beans $.50 corn $.34. The week prior dry forecasts had corn up $.44 and beans up $.95. So far this dry week with corn up $.55 and $.80 on beans. Looking back six weeks with 2 wet weeks and 4 dry weeks, the dry week rallies are 35 to 50% greater than the wet week declines. This comes from the fear that current tight corn stocks and historically tight bean stocks next year has fear of price rationing entering should the dry trend continued through July. The National Weather Service records have 2012 as the warmest on record and the top 10 driest. One can only assume it will continue near-term and that being into July. Weekly swings are so large, whether up or down, you cant trade long-term but week to week. So if by Friday all the weather models see the next week as cooler and wetter, you need to go short and expected a down week. Another hot or cool week but no rain, you have to go long expecting a further increase in the weather premium being built-in. It's one week at a time. Monday's crop condition report put corn at 63% good to excellent condition, down 3% from the week prior, 70% a year ago and 10 year average of 68%. Eastern grain belt with the lowest Midwest ratings read like this. Illinois 52% down 4, Indiana 37% down 12, Ohio 53% down 11 and Missouri 40% down 3%. Eastern corn belt rainfall this week has 40% coverage of .10 to .65 inches. Western corn belt 60% .25 to 1.00 inches of rain. This will occurred late Wednesday into Thursday, but it's too little to improve conditions. With the high heat into Wednesday conditions look to decline further. Bean conditions were 56% good to excellent versus 60 last week, 65 the week prior, 60 a year ago and 10 year average of 66%. Western grain belt Iowa 61% down 1, Nebraska 61% down 3, while suffering Eastern grain belt worse with Illinois 47% down 3, Indiana 32% down 13, Ohio 40% down 14 and Missouri 40% down 14. It is early with the key pod setting stage weeks away but the market trades it like were in the key yield time as low ending stock reserves allow no growing season problems. As of today Tuesday, next week in the Midwest will be cooler with two key weather models calling it drier but some models wetter. It's too early to trade next weeks weather, but it's a starting point going into Friday when next weeks trading decisions are made. Technicals read like this. December corn support 5.50, 5.38 resistance 5.76, 5.82, 5.90. November beans support 13.70, 13.35 resistance 14.00 then 14.70. September wheat support 6.60, 6.44. Resistance 6.76 then 7.10.
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