WHAT WEATHER............ We started the short week with lower grain prices as large trading funds were selling crude oil and stock indices Monday night into Tuesday's day trade and this pulled grains and other commodities down for the ride. We haven't seen the outside market influence grains the last two weeks as grains were focused on their own thoughts of declining crop conditions and bullish crop tours. Prior the August USDA crop report we had at least one day in each of the four prior weeks, where outside market collapses pulled grains down sharply. So Monday's was a reminder that outside market influence on any given day remains present, especially if grains have no news of their own to trade that day. After the close Monday our crop condition report came out showing corn at 52% good to excellent condition down 2% from the week prior, 69% a year ago and the lowest rating of the year. All key producers came in lower with Illinois 40% down one, Indiana 34% down three, Iowa 55% down four, Nebraska 75% down two and Ohio 54% down two. This will further talk that next Monday's big USDA crop report will come in with lower production and yields. Beans were 56% good to excellent condition down 1% from the week prior, under a year ago of 64% and the lowest rating of the year. The trade had hoped beans could yet improve but not one major producer was up on the week. Failures came in Indiana 40% down five, Iowa 62% down two, Missouri 38% down one, Nebraska 79% down three, Ohio 62% down two and Wisconsin 76% down two. Some states still appear too high and with the pod setting stage virtually over at 97% complete, one can only assume conditions will further decline. North and South Dakota are probably 10 to 12% to high with Minnesota and Iowa 5 to 8% to high. Look for these states to adjust lower on the next two reports. WXRISK.COM the weather site sees generally dry conditions this week across the Midwest but weather pertaining to rain doesn't carry wait anymore as the trade feels the growing season is over. All the pre-report trade estimates prior next Monday's crop report still are coming in with corn in the 12 to 12.5 billion bushel production range and a couple under 12. A poll from Bloomberg news puts the average guess on corn at 12.554 b.b. versus last months USDA 12.914 and beans at 3.032 versus 3.056 b.b. I still see the government as 30 days behind on their crop research. This should give us a conservatively bullish report on Monday's report. Look for strength into the report but traders will look to sell a higher opening Monday if it's not more bullish than their thinking as their estimates suggest. But expect the October report to be the shocker with new contract highs following as the harvest underway tells no lies. Technicals read like this. December corn support is 7.34. November beans 14.10. December wheat support is 7.50.
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