Monday's first report came with the Weekly Export Inspection Report showing 40.8 million bushels of corn inspected by the USDA for near term shipment. This was up from 35.8 the week prior and just 1.5 m.b. under a very strong four week average. It is a good demand signal as Asian countries remain active buyers as harvest nears and prices are 2.30 cents cheaper than a year ago. It will not drive the Futures as pre-harvest pricing psychology enters but if continues will be a driving force during harvest. The Crop Progress Report after the close showed 68% of the crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged for the second consecutive week and up 1% from a year ago. The government got what it wanted and that is to narrow its initial gap between this year and last as the first reports had this year's crop rated too high on near identical weather conditions and late planting dates again. It will be interesting to see were ratings go from here as most field reports seem to have the crop in better condition even though these are great ratings. The seasonal down trend is intact. We broke first support of 3.20 with a Monday 3.114 low on Monday. Last Friday, I said we should expect to see the 3.00 to 3.08 basis December Futures with 2.87 as worse case scenario. We need a close over 3.22 to test major resistance at 3.40 this week.
The Weekly Export Inspection Report showed 5.6 m.b. of beans were inspected for near term shipment, down from 10 m.b. the week prior and strong four week average of 9 m.b. China was missing from the mix and this maybe a signal they are done buying the old crop and awaiting a better value on the new crop shipment after September 1st at the harvest low bids. The Crop Condition Report left beans unchanged on the week at 66% in G-E condition. The highest of the year's ratings was 68% and the lowest 66%. Last year this time we were 62%. The government is waiting for the crop to catch up to its too high rating and it will. The crop condition ratings for corn and beans are not pricing factor at this point. Okay! We had 9.40 as our first goal of support and we saw a 9.44 low on Monday and Tuesday night's low of 9.42. A close under 9.40 and our next objective was 9.10. A short covering rally could take us to 9.80 but unless something enters that is not there, 9.10 should come first. The western and eastern corn and bean belt is seeing from .50 to 2.00 of rain is over 70% coverage through today. WXRISK.COM the weather site says another rain front enters on Wednesday with heavy rains again before a cool front enters this weekend with more rain called for in the middle of next week. No frost scare as of yet; but be on watch as just a scare will add 70 cents to beans.
The Weekly Export Inspections came in at 13.8 m.b. vs. 15 last week and a weak four week average of 14.2. The demand remains a weak side issue to pricing as the wheat awaits possible demand for the Spring Wheat crop and or world production issues to arise. The Spring Wheat Crop Condition Report improved 2% from the week prior at 74% G-E condition vs. 56 a year ago. The harvest is at 13% complete so if millers and importers want one of the ten year best rated crops, they need to surface soon. Texas and Oklahoma suddenly are seeing some rain after severe drought and heat and this should encourage winter wheat seeding but I am not willing to bring an end to the drought. Wheat remains a follower to corn until a crop issue arises or spring wheat demand surfaces. Next support for December wheat is 4.80 and we need a close over 5.18 to turn technically friendly.