Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 1.062 m.m.t. of corn was sold last week down 15% from the week prior but up 7% from a strong four week average. Corn sales have been up over 1 m.m.t. for three consecutive weeks with key Asian customers in for 688 t.m.t. Asian neighbors of China continue to over book U.S. corn as China builds domestic reserves. Demand remains robust as third world countries continue quietly building grain reserves at our cost to insure they are not caught short of grain again like last year and paying double spring prices again. Today’s USDA monthly crop report put ending stocks inventory at 1.700 billion bushels come September 1st. This was down 40 m.b. from the March report and 31 m.b. under the average pre report trade guess. Most of the drop came as feed usage was increased. This took corn up 6 to 8 cents on the opening but this Monday the market will not remember this report and we will be back to weather and its impact on field work and planting delays. WXRISK.COM sees a kink in the 15 day outlook. One model of weather projection sees a continued wetter than normal pattern across the grain belt. If this holds May corn will push and test 4.18. The other model sees warmer and much drier. This would have traders remove some weather premium and pull May back to 3.80 even though support on the chart lies at 3.90.
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 431 t.m.t. of beans were sold last week off 28% from the week prior and 14% under our four week average. Key player China was in for 238 t.m.t. vs. 57 last week. Though lower, 431 is still a good number and China in buying U.S. beans while Brazilian beans flood the market shows their demand pace intent. Today’s USDA crop report lowered ending stocks for the third consecutive month to 165 million bushels, off 4 from the average pre-report trade guess, 20 m.b. under last month’s report and 35 under last year’s final number. It all came as exports were adjusted up. Demand remains strong as South American weather and political problems keep importers aggressively buying U.S. beans while weather here has created early field work concerns. Today’s report pushed beans 25 cents higher before profit taking came in as traders cut risk ahead of our three day holiday. Like corn, beans too come in Monday and reapply attention to weather. If the weather comes Monday is seen very wet as the European weather model is suggesting we will push May to 10.50. If the American weather model now suggesting drier lays ahead then 9.70 basis May is certain to be tested. This is the first time in two months were the weather models were not in agreement but there is three days for the jet stream to twist or bend and change leaving Monday’s open a 50-50 chance.
Thursday’s weekly export sales number showed 189 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last month down 33% from the week prior and 33% under our weak four week average. Same old story. No demand until the U.S. crops come to harvest in late May and then the size of demand will be determined on the quality and quantity of high quality milling wheat for human consumption. Today’s crop report put ending stocks come the start of the wheat marketing year June 1st at 969 m.b. over a year ago. Nothing bullish here- Wheat rallied early with corn and beans then broke down. The weather outlook appears to be fairly wet for the hard red winter wheat belt yet a little warmer as well. This should have traders thinking crop conditions on emerging wheat will improve pushing prices lower. When we come in Monday if that is the case May could test the 5.10. Strong resistance lies at 5.70.