Monday's crop condition report was unchanged for corn with 52% of the crop in good to excellent condition, versus 66% a year ago. Harvest was put at 21% versus 37% a year ago and ten year average of 23%. The remainder of the week is warm and dry allowing harvest to surpass last year's pace.
The condition of the U.S. soybean crop condition improved 1% from a week ago, to 54% good to excellent condition, versus 64% a year ago with harvest at 19% complete. The 10-year average is 27%. Bean harvest looks like it is moving faster than corn as 76% of the crop is ready to meet the combine (though corn is at 79% ready). However, growers look to let corn sit longer in the fields to allow drying in order to save on drying costs after our recent price decline.
Planting of the domestic winter wheat crop came in at 42% seeded compared to the 10-year average of 54%. Key players: Texas came in at 25% planted versus the 10-year average of 49%; Oklahoma is at 30% versus 49%; Kansas is 43% seeded versus the average 47%. The drought has meant some lagging, but the weather site WXRISK.COM sees a long-awaited rain event in Texas and Oklahoma on Friday and Saturday with 70% coverage of 1 to 4 inches of rain. It's a lot of rain for that area not seen since early last year! Wheat is a weed and doesn't need much; but this gives the topsoil what's needed. As a result, the growers who have been waiting for rain to plant now have a reason to hit the fields. Of course, more timely rain is needed for crop development, but concern has been about planting delays and this brings an end to that factor.
Technicals: December corn support lies at $5.76 - the same price we gave on Friday's report. The low Monday was $5.72 with a $5.92 close. Tuesday's low was $5.77 with a $5.85 close. We know funds are buying off the $5.76 support.
We should get a bearish Wednesday crude oil and energy stocks report. That's bearish for the grains, pulling corn down with other grains. Should $5.76 hold again, a near-term low would be in.
If corn closes under $5.76, then $5.44 is next.
Support for November beans lies at $11.20 then $10.97 with resistance at $12.20.
December wheat support remains $6.00. A close under that means $5.50 is next. Resistance is $6.25 then $6.75.
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