Euro contemplates carving lower high or higher low. Dollar/Yen still constructive; eying 104.00 major double bottom objective. Cable looking to finally break back above 1.5000. Dollar/Swiss dips viewed as buy opportunities.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Remains locked in a multi-day consolidation since rallying to 1.3740 in mid-March. At this time it is unclear as to whether we are in the process of carving out a lower top by 1.3740 ahead of the major trend resumption, or attempting to put in a higher low above 1.3000 ahead of fresh upside beyond 1.3740. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3585

R3

4/6 high

1.3500

R2

Psychological

1.3420

R1

4/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3125

S1

4/13 low

1.3090

S2

4/10 low

1.3000

S3

Psychological

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.30 delays. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

102.45

R3

10/20 high

101.70

R2

61.8% Fib

101.45

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

99.90

S1

4/7 low

99.30

S2

4/8 low

98.40

S3

4/2 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Price action has been constructive since bottoming by 1.3655 on March 11. While the broader structure remains grossly bearish, there is the potential now for a major base taking form with a break back above 1.5000 to help confirm and accelerate gains. Look for a higher low now by 1.4580 to be confirmed on a break back above 1.5000. Above 1.5000 exposes the 1.5375 2009 highs further up. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5165

R3

1/12 high

1.4990

R2

2/9 high

1.4960

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4605

S1

4/13 low

1.4580

S2

4/7 low

1.4500

S3

Psychological

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Despite the latest round of sharp setbacks on Monday, our outlook remains constructive with a fresh higher low sought out above 1.1240 ahead of the next upside beyond 1.1625. As such, dips towards 1.1300 should be used as good buy opportunities in anticipation of bull trend resumption. Nevertheless, with daily studies showing neutral, we prefer to remain on the sidelines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1550

R3

3/30 high

1.1490

R2

4/2 high

1.1430

R1

4/9 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1300

S1

Figure

1.1240

S2

4/6 low

1.1225

S3

3/27 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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