Topic: Soybeans | Spot Contract is July 2009 | Date: 06/2009 | Week 23
SN9 Technicals: High 16.50 on 07-03-2008 | Low 8.40 on 12-05-2008 | Support 10.50, Resistance 13.00
Soybeans have hit some important technical points. The highs Thursday in July beans hit the old 1973 hit at 1290 and at the same time Nov beans hit the 1988 high at 1099. These annual highs are resistance until closed over. In the daily chart below, the market hit the Fibonacci time and price 1.68%. This market could break $1.90 and still be in an up trend. Interesting to note; that the Fibonacci time projection is on the first notice day of the July contract. One of the biggest reports of the year, Grain Stocks and Planted Acres, is on June 30 th . So a pull back into this zone is logical.
The other dotted lines are a 1x1 square and each line is a 1x1.
Also, plotted on the weekly is the 1x1 square of the range. Each week is equal $0.10
The Fund Longs are out of balance with the Fund Shorts. Fund Shorts haven't made a stand. Commercials Shorts are on a 7-week high and have mounted an aggressive short position.
The Long Index Funds are about halfway back in their long positions from 2008. The large loss that occurred in the 2008 will hard to recover. Remember, ETFs buy the most contracts at the top, when the public finally becomes convinced the commodities are going sensationally higher. And sell the most contracts when redemptions begin to come in.
CIT Shorts are much smaller but show the scale-up mentality. And who made the most money, CIT Shorts or CIT Long?
Fund longs have powered up 100,000 contracts since March.
Commercials have offset the Fund long's contracts.
Bullish Consensus shows that 80% interviewed are bullish and the contrarian view would look at this as a possible high.