April showers usually bring May flowers, but has that old adage shifted this year to March flowers bringing April snow?
Forecasts show that heavy snowfall is headed for New York City, Boston and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic region in the first week of April.
Most of the Mid-Atlantic region has seen practically no snow this winter, with the highest accumulation coming, oddly, on Halloween.
But it turns out that we may be shocked with unseasonal weather once again as spring progresses as the Global Forecast System predicts that snow is headed to the region in the first week of April.
A snow model forecast by the GFS shows that a significant amount of snow may fall on the Mid-Atlantic, with the heaviest accumulation hitting the New England area.
According to the predictions, areas of Massachusetts and eastern New York may get up to two feet on April 4, and snow may sweep through the area between April 2 and 5.
New York City, Pennsylvania and New Jersey look as if they will get less precipitation, more in the range of 2 to 8 inches, but even that much would be a major anomaly when compared to past trends.
In April 1875, 13.5 inches of snow fell on Central Park in Manhattan, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records, and in April 1915, 10.2 inches fell there. Since the records started being compiled in 1868, there has never been another April with more than 8.5 inches of snow in April (that came in 1924), and eight of the past 11 years have seen zero April flakes. But 4.0 inches fell on Central Park in April 2003, and 0.1 inches fell there in 2006.
Though these types of GFS forecasts are notoriously unreliable when looked at so far ahead of time, it is telling that there is even mention of such a snow event.
Snow in April 2012 would come on the heels of two years of intense weather in America, which saw rare, vicious tornadoes sweeping through Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and other states, tornadoes in New York City and an unseasonably warm winter in many of the continental states.
So don't bet on it, but also don't put your snow-boots or skis away just yet, as we may be seeing snow in the northeastern states this spring.