As President Barack Obama receives his annual Hurricane Season briefing at the start of Hurricane Season 2011, he'll likely be told that there is a 70 percent chance of between 3 to 6 major hurricanes until the end of November, as above normal activity is expected this year.
Above-normal hurricane activity is expected in the Atlantic basin during the 6 months stretch, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
Obama was scheduled to receive a briefing Wednesday morning.
NOAA has already released its outlook.
NOAA said in mid-May that there is a 70 percent chance of the following:
- 12-18 Named Storms
- 6-10 Hurricanes
- 3-6 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 105 percent to 200 percent of the 198-2010 median.
NOAA says three climate factors are contributing to the assessment including:
- A tropical signal which lasts at least 20 years known as a multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995.
- Continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which is called the Main Development Region.
- No El Niño or La Niña climate patterns. They are described as ENSO-neutral (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) La Niña impacts into the summer.
Several models also show the number and strength of tropical cyclones will be above normal this season.