High Frequency Economics - The ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index dropped to just 41.9 from 54.4, way below the consensus 53 and the lowest since the survey began in Oct 2001. The new composite index (weighted average of business activity, orders, employment and deliveries)

also tanked, to just 44.6 from 53.2. The low for the business activity index in the recession of 2001 was 47.9, so it is very tempting to see this survey as evidence that recession is unavoidable.