Rupee: Rupee opened stronger at 47.55 after taking resistance from the 38.2% Retracement at 47.92 yesterday as expected also backed by month-end dollar demand by importers and weak stocks. The overall outlook for rupee still remains bullish. Sustained trading below 48.35 (50% Retracement) can bring a re-test of 46.80 support. Exporters should cover their exposures around 47.90 - 48.20 levels. (USD/INR : 47.56). Bullish.
Euro: Euro retraced around 165 pips from 1.4022 high yesterday, however closed stronger at 1.3989. The daily and 4-hourly charts are overbought which may again lead to some correction in Euro. Break below 1.3935 (21 4-hourly EMA) can take Euro to cluster support of 1.3810 (38.2% retracement of the recent rise & 55 hourly EMA). Longs can be initiated around 1.3750 - 1.3820 levels for 150 pips. On the upside sustained trading above 1.40 can push Euro higher to 1.4170 (50% of the fall from 1.6038 to 1.2329). Avoid shorts in Euro. (Eur/Usd:1.3968). Short Term Bullish.
Pound: Cable retraced and took support around 1.5777 (channel trendline & 100 Hourly EMA) yesterday. Later in the US session cable surged higher to 1.5980 levels meeting our target of yesterday. The charts remain overbought with resistance around 1.6035 (38.2% of the fall from 2.0158 to 1.3502) and then 1.6228 (55 Weekly EMA). Correction could be witnessed, however, avoid initiating short positions as Cable is still in an uptrend. Initiate longs around 1.58 levels for 150 pips. Stay cautious on shorts before 1.62. (Gbp/Usd: 1.5967). Short term Bullish
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair traded in a thin range yesterday. The daily stochastic shows buying pressure which can take the pair to 96.25 levels (21 Daily EMA). The 4-hourly & hourly charts are yet to get completely oversold with first resistance around 96.20 where shorts in the pair could be considered. Overall outlook remains bearish and a break of 93.50 can take JPY to 92.50 (Usd/Jpy: 95.39).
Australian Dollar: Aussie remained volatile yesterday trading in 180 pips and surging to 0.7881 breaking past the weekly resistance. Major charts have flattened in the overbought region indicating further upside in Aussie. The 4-hourly charts are overbought which may bring a correction upto 0.7721 (55 4-hourly EMA) where longs can be entered. On the upside resistance comes at 0.7935 (50% Retarcement of the fall in weekly). (Aud/Usd: 0.7854)
Gold: Gold plunged to $940 yesterday before closing at $951. We booked profits on yesterday's long position as the daily and 4-hourly charts remain overbought and a retracement upto $930 (cluster support) is on the cards. We maintain our view for going long in Gold around $930 - 935 as the overall bias for gold is bullish. Bullish (Gold- 949.72).
Dollar Index: DX continues to trade above our support target of 80.20; breaking of which can bring further bearishness upto 79.66. The stochastic continues to be flat in the oversold region. A small rebound could be expected from 79.66 support. (DI- 80.28) ) Bearish
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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy.