Rupee opened weaker hitting levels close to 48.58 . As mentioned earlier 48.60 levels are crucial for rupee to remain bearish. It is getting support from the strength in dollar across majors overseas. We see continous sell off in commodities across. It needs to break 48.60 to get a confirmation of the uptrend resuming again. Its likely to hover in a range of 48.40-48.60 today. Its important that it should get support from pound / euro and international stocks to maintain weakness further. Please note that there are stiff resistances in BSE and NSE at the current valuations. Only a break of 48.00 would confirm that rupee is entering a fresh leg of strength again. Rangebound.(USD/INR : 48.50)
Euro faced stiff resistance at 1.4300 levels (twice) and broke 1.4150 levels again. It has confirmed the short term reversal pattern in daily chart and bias turns to short term bearish. We need to watch the level of 1.3850 levels which has been a very strong support earlier and also a weekly trendline and 100 day EMA . In case we see a weekly close below that then only a TREND REVERSAL would be confirmed. In Correction mode.(EUR/USD 1.4060)
Cable is also showing bearish patterns . We need a break of 1.6230 and then 1.60 levels to be confirmed that a trend reversal is in place. Technically only a break of 1.6550 would again turn the view bullish.(GBP/USD 1.6420) In Correction Mode.
Yen met heavy correction after the resistance at the weekly trendline near 95.40 levels. It is likely to head further lower incase we see currencies dipping against dollar and risk aversion continuing. (USD/JPY 95.07) Slightly Bullish
Aud has faced stiff resistance and only a sustained move above .8260 levels (Important resistance) would push the pair up. Correction in crude and gold has started .Only a break of .7950 would trigger bearishness in the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8199) Bullish but Overbought
Gold maintained its fall towards 925 dollars and corrected till 930 dollars. As mentioned earlier gold was still in a consolidation phase and a sell off was very much expected. Bearish below 946 dollars. (Gold- $930.30.). Mildly Bearish
The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) has tested the June lows at 78.31, a break of which would be the lowest since December. We should once again expect to hold at 78.25 -- the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the 71.29 low to the 89.50 high. But its time for a corrective bounce again. If we calculate , the equivalent 77.90 support in the dollar index translates roughly to $1.4320 in EURUSD resistance, $1.6570 in GBPUSD resistance, 0.8360-70 in AUDUSD and 0.6650 in NZDUSD, all of which are expected to hold for quite some time.. (Dollar Index - 79.34) Range Bound
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DISCLAIMER These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy.