IFA'S Market Commentary - Dollar remains under pressure...NFP Awaited!

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Rupee: The rupee closed at 50.33 ; 1% stronger than Tuesday€™s close. This was primarily due to the rally in the stocks. Importers could buy on dips as the overall bias remains bearish for the rupee. On the upside 51.20 holds strong whereas on the downside 49.80 is the support. MODERATELY BEARISH AGAIN UNTIL 50 BREAKS.

Euro: Euro surged high after ECB cut only 25 bps against the expectation of 50 bps cut yetserday. Euro took strong support from the 100 & 21 Daily EMA around 1.3235 levels before rising almost 300 pips. Short-term trendline resistance comes at 1.3533 with 4-hourly charts overbought and daily still signalling an up-move. Caution is required while initiating short positions. (Eur/Usd:1.3435). NEUTRAL

Pound: Cable strengthened almost 300 pips yesterday holding above the 55 Daily EMA. The daily and hourly charts indicate further upmove with resistance coming in 1.4888 (100 Daily EMA). The 4 hourly charts are overbought and retracement upto 1.4505 (21 4-hourly & 38.2% of recent rise) could be seen. Initiate cautious shorts above 1.4830 with stops of 100 pips. Alternatively buy sterling around 1.45 for 80-100 pips. Focus is on the NFP today. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4711). NEUTRAL TO BULLISH

Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair as expected broke the resistance of 98.70 and moved closer to 100 levels taking the 55 Weekly EMA Resistance. We would target 101.64 (61.8% retracement of the major fall) if 100 is broken decisively else more range bound trading could be witnessed. The strategy remains relatively bullish since its holding above the trendline. Add positions only breaking and closing above 100.00 levels targetting 101.50. SLIGHTLY NEUTRAL TO BULLISH. (Usd/Jpy: 99.60).

Australian Dollar: Aussie is trading strong (as expected) and has surged close to 225 pips yesterday from the low of 0.6975. This morning it is trading above 0.71 with the daily chart indicating an upside. A surge upto 0.7270 resistance could be expected if it sustains above 0.70. BULLISH (Aud/Usd: 0.7138).

Gold: Gold took the 21 Daily EMA resistance ($929) and plunged $32 breaking the rising support trendline. It was pushed up by the 100 Daily EMA to end the session at $903. The charts are neutral with resistance coming in at $915. Holding below this level can bring a test of $891. Initiate shorts there for $8-10. NEUTRAL. (Gold: $917.60)

Dollar index :DX futures is trading around the important support at 84.90. Sustaning above 84.60 could be a breather for the Dollar. Stochastic indicates upmove. NEUTRAL

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DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy.

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