Rupee: Referring to our previous charts and updates we still have our eyes on 49.85-90 levels. Till the time it does not break 49.90 (weekly trendline) on a closing basis for 2-3 days we stick to the trend. An observation is to be noted that Rupee after taking support from 49.90 levels went up till 50.60 but still staying close to 49.80-90 levels. Moreover despite dollar strength in overseas markets against euro, if we see rupee holding below 49.90 it shows rupee internal strength against dollar. If this correlation breaks then we could target 47.60 . Please note 49.90 now has become a very crucial support. Bullish , but should stay below 49.90.
Euro: Euro went to a high of 1.3376 yesterday but corrected quickly to 1.3225 despite pound holding close to 1.49 levels. Downward bias is still on due to quantitative easing policy expectation from Eurozone. Staying below 1. 3250 would push the pair to 1.3075. Look for short opportunities at every rise. (Eur/Usd:1.3237). Bearish.
Pound: The pair is forming a consolidation between the channel at its support at 1.4610 levels and resistance near 1.53 levels. It would face a strong resistance at 1.5050 levels (23.6% retracement of the big fall since July 08). Currently the view is slightly bullish , only a break below 1.4540 on a decisive note would change the view of pound to bearish again. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4870). Neutral.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair could again aim at the weekly trendline near 101.80 levels only once it takes support at 98.00 levels i.e the daily trendline support .The weekly stochastic is overbought and flat. Incase Yen breaks 98.00 and holds for 2 sessions then further downside could be observed. (Usd/Jpy: 98.25).
Australian Dollar: Aussie is still maintaining above the trendline support . Look for entering long at dips around 0.7090- 0.7120 levels targeting 100 pips. The 4 hrly charts have also corrected. (Aud/Usd: 0.7158).
Gold: Gold is holding below the daily and weekly trend lines and crucial moving averages. It is likely to be bearish in short term . Sell at retracements around 900 to 910 levels Bearish (Gold: $892.10)
Dollar index :The dollar index strengthened last week and closed above 55 days EMA, due to weakness in Euro. While it's still limited below near term resistance of 86.13, the case for resuming rally from 82.63 has been building up. We're still maintaining the view that key support of 82 level (cluster support of 61.8% retracement of 77.69 to 89.62 at 82.24 and 38.2% retracement of 70.70 to 89.62 at 82.39, as well as long term rising trend line at 82.03) intact. Break above 86.13 will set the stage for retesting 89.62 high. Though a break below 84.93 will dampen the bullish case and argues that some more sideway trading would be seen before an upside break out. Bullish.
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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy.