The Dollar traded softer as Egyptian concerns seems to be fading and batch of US data released yesterday, consumer spending and the Chicago PMI were surprising higher. Turmoil in Egypt triggered credit rating agency Moody to cut its government bonds ratings by 1 notch to Ba2 and outlook down to 'negative' from 'stable'. The Euro rose upto 1.3740 levels after reacting to the news of higher January Inflation came in at 2.4% vs. 2.3%. The Yen was very stable near the Y82 level due to weak Dollar but supported from strong crosses. The Sterling climbing above 1.6000 levels on inflation worry. The Aussie has gained above Parity ahead of the RBA meeting today. Most Asian currencies are slightly stronger against dollar.
EUR/USD: The Euro extended its gains and is currently trading at 1.3715 levels after making a high of 1.3739 after Egyptian concerns eased yesterday. Looking ahead today, German Unemployment Change forecast at -11k vs. 3k previously and Unemployment Rate expected stable at 10.1%. Immediate support comes at 1.3680 (H4 20 Middle Bollinger) while resistance comes at 1.3775 levels (H4 20 Upper Bollinger). EURINR (62.89) exporters should cover partially at current levels and importers can cover on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.75- 63.00 today. Short term slight Bullish and Medium term Bearish
GBP/USD: The Pound rallied yesterday is currently trading at 1.6041 levels. Looking ahead due today, Manufacturing PMI and M4 Money Supply m/m and Nationwide HPI m/m. Immediate support comes near 1.5950 (100 Weekly EMA) followed by 1.5930(Daily 61.8 Fibo) while resistance at 1.6055(20 H4 Upper Bollinger) followed by 1.630 (20 Daily Upper Bollinger). GBPINR (73.55) Exporters should partially cover at current levels and importers can cover below 72 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.40 - 73.60 levels today. Short term slight Bullish and Medium term Bearish
USD/JPY: USD/JPY is currently trading at 81.96 levels and was stable most of the time. Immediate resistance is at 82.25 levels (21 H4 EMA) followed by 82.70(20 Daily Middle Bollinger) while immediate support is at 81.77 levels (20 Daily Lower Bollinger). Yen Exporters can cover Feb month's exposure around 81 levels and Yen Importers to cover their exposures near 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness for the pair.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading near the parity levels at 1.0006. HPI q/q increased to 0.7% while RBA Cash rate expected stable at 4.75% due today. Immediate support comes at 0.9941 levels (21 Daily EMA) followed by 0.9927 levels (20 Daily Middle Bollinger) while immediate resistance is at 1.0030(20 Daily Upper Bollinger) followed by 1.0080(Weekly 23.6 Fibo). Exporters are suggested to book Feb month's exposure towards 1.0100 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: Gold is trading near 1337 levels and had recovered slightly after easing middle east contagion fears. Overall the yellow metal had traded with a low of $1322 and high of $1339. Support for gold is near 1332 levels (21 H4 EMA) followed by 1315(20 Daily Lower Bollinger) and immediate resistance is at 1354(100 Daily EMA and 20 Daily Middle Bollinger). As said earlier, Buying on dips is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading slightly lower than yesterday at 77.79 levels. Dollar was softer as inflation worries supported the Euro and Sterling. Chicago PMI had increased to 68.8 vs. 66.8 previous. Looking ahead today, ISM Manufacturing PMI expected lower at 57.8. Immediate Support at 77.45 (H4 20 Lower Bollinger) and resistance is at 77.90 levels (H4 21 Daily EMA) followed by 78.20(H4 55 Daily EMA). Medium Term: Slight Bullish
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.