There is a huge week of economics ahead that really could set the tone for global equity, interest rate, GDP, and therefore forex direction. If equities bounce higher we can look to sell the Usd in long-term trades and signals that are issued with larger stops and much bigger targets than has been the norm. If equities react by moving lower we will be buying the Usd in tight target trades that get locked up quickly.
The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do whatever is required to boost the economy and back the open market (de-value the dollar with quantative easing), the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Finance Ministry are calling for a lower value Jpy, and global equity markets are at the time of year that tends to go sideways (sell in May and go away, don't come back 'till St Swithern's day).
We cannot have all three following through at the same time; something has to give, and that looks to be all dependent upon the global equity market. Long equities = short Usd, and vice versa. We will update as soon as the markets are up and running on Sunday, and will update the major pair detail as the sessions get underway.
The Trade Plans have been updated with expanded technical reads, and have been written to explain the real technical potential in each pair as we go through the next period of global trade. There are a few spaces left on the live technical training course,
Euro: Back into mixed mode after a week of nothing. Take care either way now.
Near-Term: Looking to hold 1.3400 as support, if that breaks it draws in price action down to 1.3250, and will be in-line with a move from equity markets dropping lower.
Cable: Holding good support at 1.5100. Long bias, but it all happens in two or three 30 minute runs that then consolidate.
Near-Term: Looking to hold 1.5150 as support, with strong looking areas below that to hold short moves up. The most bullish looking major at the moment.
Aussie: Holding good support at 0.7500. Long bias overall, but struggling to break higher in a weak equity environment.
Near-Term: At the beck and call of global equity market trade. Looking for the reaction to any gaps on Sunday. We have a 200 pip Overall: The aussie closed the last session above all of the daily simple moving averages.
Swissy: Could literally go anywhere, take care here.
Near-Term: Take care expecting another run from swissy, this pair consolidates hard after big breaks. Monitor, review, and trade it only once a good period of sideways trade has held each day's pivot points. Trying to intra-day trade whilst inside R1 and S1 on the pivot points is a waste of energy; set a break of either and respect the fact that this pair needs to build momentum. There is nothing here that will easily follow through, and therefore reduce the Trade Plan lot sizes.
Cad: Looking to move higher, but lacking real momentum. Canadian bank holiday on Monday.
Near-Term: The pair is still sitting in a channel range, and is now looking as though it needs massive volume increases to make the next sustainable move, either way.
Yen: In short mode, but the moves reveal just how much the market feels forced into dollar buying.
Near-term: Looking for whatever the equity markets decide to do before getting involved in Usd/Jpy. The Sunday open will be interesting, and we will report on any gaps.
Look for intra-day updates in the