FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - $ index is ranging since the March 19th low at 82.65, is still seen as a correction, and suggests an eventual resumption of the declines to new lows after. Note too that on a very short term basis, the fall from the March 30th high at 86.15 occurred in 5 waves (see short term chart at www.fxa.com/solin/comments.htm ), suggests that this decline is not yet complete, and adds weight to the bearish view. Still short from the March 2nd sell at 88.85 and for now, would continue to take profits on a close above the 86.10/25 high (also a 50% retracement from the March 4th high at 89.60). Though this would not change the bigger picture bearish view, it would suggest a deeper bounce/correction higher first (and would be looking to reshort at higher levels if taken out). Also, would get more aggressive with trailing stops on a move below the 82.65 low as there is some risk that further downside may be limited (see longer term below). Support before 82.65 is seen at the bullish trendline since Dec (currently at 83.65/75).
Longer term no change since warning in the March 10th email that there was a high risk that the move above the Nov high at 88.45 was a bearish false break. Switched the longer term bias to the negative side and the market has indeed weakened since. With the nearer term downside pattern not complete (see shorter term above), further declines below 82.65 are still favored. Note too that further support is just below 82.65 is at 82.30/50 (both a 38% retracement from the March 2008 low at 70.70 and the bullish trendline since July), with this area likely to act as a bigger picture pivot- either accelerating below or providing a month or 2 of correcting and potential gains all the way back to the March high at 94.60. Currently prefer the more bearish view (downside acceleration), but in either case, at least some new lows below 82.65 are favored. So for now for the longer term, will maintain the bearish bias but will be looking for signs of a potentially important bottom below 82.65 (inability to accelerate lower, completed downside wave pattern, etc.).