India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /01_Apr_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear Reader,

Global Markets:

Sentiment remained positive but asset class performance was limited to commodities and risky currencies. US equities are unchanged, spending the evening ranging sideways as portfolios were stayed on the sidelines into quarter end. The EURO rose from 1.4150 to 1.4233, the peripheral debt sell off and ECB reluctance to provide fresh liquidity to Irish banks. The G7-coordinated intervention to stem the rise of the yen is already showing signs of success. Crude Oil gained by 2.0% to match March's multiyear high. The commodities index bounced 1.5%, copper was up 0.8% and gold was up 1.0%. US 10yr treasury yields are 2bp higher at 3.46%, fairly volatile in a 3.40-3.48 range.

Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD: The release of the Irish stress tests showed that an additional 24bn euro in capital would be required by four Irish banks. Peripheral Euro zone government debt suffered with Portugal's 10yr yield surging 31bps to 8.41%, Ireland yield was up 12bps at 10.22%, Spain at 9bps and Greece at 7bps. Immediate resistance is at 1.4208 while immediate support is seen at 1.4109 - 1.4137 areas. Daily Stochastic is showing upside movement. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bullish. Looking ahead today, market will be focused over Unemployment Rate and manufacturing PMI which are expected neutral.

GBP/USD: Pound (1.6046) rebounded pushing towards 1.6150 but found heavy resistance and reversed back to support at 1.6033. March HPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.7% previously. Further support is seen near 1.5993 followed by 1.5914 and resistance is seen near 1.6078 and next towards 1.6113 areas. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish. Today, Manufacturing PMI is expected to weaken.

USD/JPY: The pair is hovering near strong support areas at 83.60 which if broken can dive the pair downside towards 82.45 - 82.75 regions. Resistance is near 83.80 levels. Tankan Manufacturing Index came stable at 6 as expected. Slight downside movement is expected today. April month Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure near 82.50 levels and below while Yen Importers can cover their exposure partially at current levels and above. Short term Bearish

AUD/USD: Aussie continued its two week rally and made a fresh high of 1.0371 largely supported by commodities prices. The CRB commodities index bounced 1.5%. Minor Support is seen near 1.0302 areas which if broken can take the pair towards major support at 1.0226 areas while resistance is at 1.0371 (31.03.2011). Exporters are suggested to book exposure partially at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0175 regions. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: The yellow metal moved higher tracking crude price and taking advantage of the weaker dollar. Daily Stochastic is showing upside momentum with resistance seen near 1437 and next at 1444 areas. Support regions are strong at 1424 - 1427 followed by strong support at 1421 levels. Medium term: Bullish.

Dollar Index: The dollar was slight weaker ahead of the release of today's official employment report. Weekly Jobless Claims were consistent at 388k vs. 394k while US Chicago PMI eased from 71.2 to 70.6 in Mar. Resistance is at 76.19 - 76.39 followed by 76.65 regions while immediate support is at 75.72 levels. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish. Today, Unemployment Claims expected to decline slightly and Chicago PMI to remain stable.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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