The Dollar was weaker after mixed US economic data. USD positive personal income data again renewed confidence of investors in global economic recovery. US Core PCE Price Index m/m came out as expected at 0.1%, Personal Spending m/m came out weaker at 0.2% vs 0.5% previously and Pending Home Sales m/m came out better than expected at 2.8% vs -3.2%. EUR CPI y/y and Core CPI y/y came out weaker at 2.3% and 1.1% respectively. Asian stocks rose for a third day after a drop in oil prices. Euro looking positive due to change in interest rates expectations. JPY jobless rate came out neutral at 4.9% during the month of January. Australian Retail Sales came out better than economists predicted in Jan led by supermarkets and grocery stores as floods in the nation drove up food prices and Current account data came out weaker at -7.3B vs -6.5B previously. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. CEO Khalid Al Falih said yesterday the country is ready to cover a shortfall in crude oil supply.
EUR/USD: The Eurusd resumed its rally breaking above 1.3800 levels. German Unemployment Change and Eurozone Unemployment data are expected stable. Daily stochastic is showing overbought levels with downside movement. Immediate resistance comes at 1.3840 (H4 21 Upper Bollinger) while immediate support is seen at 1.3785 levels. EURINR (62.31) exporters can cover partially near 62.50 levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 61.75 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.15 - 62.55 today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Sterling was nearly flat trading near yesterday's closing levels at 1.6296 levels. Manufacturing PMI is expected lower while market is focused more towards rate hike expectations on today's Inflation Report Hearings. Daily stochastic is showing upside momentum. Immediate support is at 1.6185 (21 Daily EMA) while resistance comes at 1.6300 (H4 Upper Bollinger). GBP/INR (73.41) March month's exporters should cover near 73.50 levels and importers cover below 72.50 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.15 - 73.60 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: Bearish
USD/JPY: The pair gained momentum towards Y82 levels after Unemployment Rate came stable at 4.9%. This Confirms that the economic recovery is on the track. Daily Stochastic is still showing near oversold levels with slight upside movement. Support is at 81.40 levels (Daily 21 lower Bollinger) while immediate strong resistance is at 82.30 levels (21 H4 Upper Bollinger). Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 81.75 levels and further on dips while Yen Importers can cover their exposure towards 82.50 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness
AUD/USD: The Aussie slightly rose towards 1.0185 levels after mixed economic data. Retail Sales m/m improved to 0.4% while AUD reported a Current Account deficit of 7.3B. It kept its cash rates stable at 4.75% as expected. As said yesterday, Daily stochastic is at overbought levels with some downside movement. Strong key resistance is at 1.0210 levels (21 Daily Upper Bollinger) and support at 1.0090 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure partially near 1.0200 levels and above while Importers can cover their exposure near parity levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The yellow metal after making a high at $1416.33 fell towards $1411.83 levels on easing Libyan fears. Immediate support for gold is near $1409 levels followed by $ 1400 while immediate resistance is at $1418.55 followed by $1431.28(05/12/2010) levels. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
Dollar Index: The US dollar index remained under pressure even after the economic data picked up, trading at 76.92. Chicago February PMI jumped to 71.2 vs. 68.8 previously while Pending Home Sales m/m fell faster than expected. Today, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve. Immediate support comes at 76.82 levels (H4 lower Bollinger) while resistance at 77.12 levels (H4 21 EMA) followed by 77.50 levels. Medium Term: Slight Bullish
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.