The Dollar sold aggressively after disappointing Non-Farm payroll report +39k vs. 140k forecast with the Unemployment Rate also jumping to 9.8% vs. 9.6% previously. The comments from the FED Chairman Bernanke that the Central Bank may expand the $600bn QE2 package. The Euro moved back above 1.3400 to complete a 400pts rally from 1.3000 levels after a shift in markets' attention from Eurozone debt crisis back to US fundamental. The strong rally in the Euro off lows does not reflect Eurozone strength but USD weakness. The Yen moved sharply lower after the US Jobs data was released doing major technical damage to the recovery and traded with a low of 82.54 and a high of 83.89. The Sterling rallied upwards towards 1.5800 reacting to USD weakness. The Aussie was very strong rallied on improving risk appetite.
EUR/USD: The Euro is currently trading at 1.3346 and touched high of 1.3422 on Friday after the weak US unemployment rate and Payrolls data. Immediate support comes near 1.3330 levels, then next support at 1.3230 levels, while immediate resistance comes near 1.3430 (100 days daily EMA). EURINR (59.96) -Importers hold for cover. Exporters are suggested to book near term exposure in 60.00 - 60.40 regions. Short term and Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5748 and touched high of 1.5775 level. Immediate resistance comes near 1.5770 levels (100 days 4 hrly EMA), while support is expected around 1.5693 levels and next 1.5620. Exporters are suggested to book Dec month's exposure on spikes near 70.70 - 71.00 levels while Importers can cover partially on dips (70.30) levels. Short Term: Bearish; Medium Term: Neutral.
USD/JPY: USD/JPY (82.91) moved sharply lower after the weak US Jobs data published last Friday. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.52 and a high of 83.84 before closing last Friday around 82.69 levels. Immediate Support is at 82.45 (21days lower Bollinger) while immediate resistance is at 83.25(21Daily EMA) levels followed by 83.75(100 Daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book Dec and Jan month's exposure near 82.50 levels and Yen Importers can cover their exposure towards 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 0.9869 levels. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9750 and a high of 0.9938 before closing at 0.9921. ANZ Job Advertisements m/m was at 2.9%, better than previous 0.7% while MI Inflation Gauge m/m was at 0.4%, compared to previous at 0.3% Immediate support comes at 0.9792 (21 Daily EMA) levels while immediate resistance 0.9952 levels (high of 22.11.2010). Exporters are suggested to book partial Dec and Jan months exposure towards 0.99 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish
Gold: Gold (1412.80) continued to trade higher, led by the weak US data published on last Friday. Overall it traded with a low of $1386 and high of $1416 before closing at $1414 on Friday. It can further up move towards the resistance of 1,424.30 level followed by 1,438 levels. Immediate support comes near 1381 levels followed by downside 1350 levels which are a very important support. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 79.49 levels and had been sold off from the resistance area of 81.45 levels last week after weaker than expected November Payrolls at +39k vs. 140k forecast with the Unemployment Rate also jumping to 9.8% vs. 9.6% previously. The support level is at 78.50 followed by a strong support at 77.80 levels and resistance is at 79.80 and next 80.50 levels.
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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.