Technical Outlook:EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4450 levels. Euro weakened against the dollar as Moody's Investors Service cut Portugal's government bond rating to junk and as holders of Greece's bonds meet with officials in Paris today to discuss their role in a second rescue for the debt-stricken nation. Retail sales data came out weaker yesterday and German Factory Orders m/m data is expected weaker today. Support is seen at 1.4396 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1.4471 levels (21 days 4 hourly EMA). EUR/INR (64.45): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 64.60 levels while importers can cover on dips near 64.00 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 64.00-64.70 levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Sterling is currently trading at 1.6048 levels. Sterling is slight positive vs. the dollar as Services PMI data came out better than expected yesterday prompting investors to cover their short positions. Looking ahead Halifax HPI m/m data is expected Neutral. Support is seen at around 1.5985 levels (55 days weekly EMA) and resistance is seen at 1.6091 levels (200 days daily EMA). GBP/INR(71.38). Exporters can cover short term exposure near 71.80 levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 71.00 levels and further on dips. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 71.10-71.60 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.0698 levels. The Australian dollar is slightly positive vs. the dollar after selling in recent days on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show the nation added the most jobs in three months. Support is seen at 1.0699 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.0742 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at 1.0700 while Importers can cover partially their near term exposure at 1.0500 and further on dips. Short term: bullish. Medium term: neutral.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 80.83 levels. Yen is positive vs. dollar as the Leading Indicator data is expected positive today and as Core Machinery Orders m/m data is forecasted to show better tomorrow. Strong support is seen at 80.67 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 81.35 levels (100 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure below 80.00 and Importers can cover above 81.50 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain Bearish for the pair.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1514.10 levels. Gold rallied as alternate safe heaven after Chinese government debts showed RMB 10.72 trillion, or about 27% of China's 2010 GDP and Moody is worried that the actual amount is one-third more the audit office's findings. Support is seen at 1507.49 (55 days 4hrly EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1523.10 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 97.34 levels. Oil rallied on the back of depleting crude inventories in the US, the largest consumer of the commodity. Support is seen at 95.68 levels (200 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 97.90 levels (55 days daily EMA). Outlook: short term Bearish, Medium term neutral.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 74.63 levels. Dollar Index is slight strong across the board with Moody's Investors Services severing Portugal's government bond rating to junk on concern thus indicating that the country will follow Greece in seeking a second international bailout. This has depreciated the Euro thus appreciating DI. Yesterday Factory Orders m/m data came out weaker than expected. Looking ahead ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data is expected weak today. Support is seen at 74.09 levels (Trend line Support) and resistance is seen at 75.57 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains neutral for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.