Technical Outlook:EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4326 levels. Euro's weakness continues vs. the dollar following the downgrade of Portugal raising concerns regarding the debt issues in Euro zone. Yesterday German Factory Orders m/m data came out better than expected. Looking ahead German Industrial Production m/m data is expected better and all eyes will be on the Interest rate decision today during the ECB meeting. Support is seen at 1.4259 levels (100 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 1.4396 levels (21 days daily EMA). EUR/INR (63.61): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 64.50 levels while importers can cover at 63.25 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.35-63.95 levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Sterling is currently trading at 1.5998 levels. Yesterday Halifax HPI m/m data came out better than expected. Looking ahead Manufacturing Production m/m data is expected better and Asset Purchase Facility data is expected neutral. Support is seen at around 1.5928 levels and resistance is seen at 1.6090 levels (200 days daily EMA). GBP/INR (71.06): Exporters can cover short term exposure near 72.00 levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 70.80 levels and further on dips. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 70.70-71.50 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.0742 levels. The Australian dollar is positive against dollar as Employment Change data came out better than expected and Unemployment rate data came in line with the expectation. Support is seen at 1.0701 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.0780 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover partially their near term exposure at 1.0500 and further on dips. Short term: bullish. Medium term: neutral.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 80.83 levels. Yen is firm vs. dollar as Core Machinery Orders m/m data came out better than previous but slightly weaker than the expectation. Support is seen at 80.69 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 81.34 levels (100 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure below 80.00 and Importers can cover above 81.50 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain Bearish for the pair.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1529.63 levels. Gold rallied strongly as concerns regarding the Euro zone continues thus increasing the appeal for alternate safe heaven. Support is seen at 1514.94 (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1550 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 97.31 levels. Oil is positive on the back of expectation that the Crude Oil reserve data today from US will be weaker, indicating depleting crude inventories in the US. Support is seen at 95.71 levels (200 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 98.56 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term Bearish, Medium term neutral.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 75.03 levels. Dollar is positive against most of the major currencies as the impact of Moody's downgrading Portugal's government bond and China increasing its lending rates yesterday to tame inflation. Yesterday ISM Non-Manufacturing, PMI data came out weaker than expected. Looking ahead Unemployment Claims data and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data is expected better today. Support is seen at 74.72 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 75.53 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook remains neutral for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.