Technical Outlook:
EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4344 levels. Euro is slight positive vs. the dollar as ECB President Trichet signaled more interest-rate increases after raising the key interest rate to 1.5 percent yesterday. Looking ahead German Trade Balance data is expected better. Support is seen at 1.4263 levels (100 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 1.4382 levels (21 days daily EMA). EUR/INR (63.60): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 63.90 levels while importers can cover at 63.00 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.00-63.95 levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: The Sterling is currently trading at 1.5951 levels. Sterling collapsed against the dollar as investors increased bets that the BOE might consider more monetary stimulus to support a fragile UK economy. Looking ahead PPI Input m/m data is expected better today. Support is seen at around 1.5911 levels and resistance is seen around 1.6003 levels (21 days daily EMA). GBP/INR (70.71): Exporters can cover short term exposure near 72.00 levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 70.00 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 70.45-72.00 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 81.26 levels. Japan's Current Account data came out positive at 0.39T vs. the expectation of 0.19T which is a sign that the economy is recovering after the record earthquake damage. Support is seen at 80.94 levels (55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 81.57 levels (21 days weekly EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure below 80.50 and Importers can cover above 82.00 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain Bearish for the pair.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.0770 levels. The commodity currency is positive vs. the US as a global rally in stocks and commodities supported demand for higher yielding assets. Support is seen at 1.0730 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.0850 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover partially their near term exposure at 1.0500. Short term: bullish. Medium term: neutral.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1530.70 levels. Support is seen at 1517.78 (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1550 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 98.49 levels. Oil rose as US data came out better than expected indicating oil demand will increase in the biggest oil consuming economy. Support is seen at 97.88 levels (55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 100 levels. Outlook: Short term Bearish, Medium term neutral.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 74.90 levels. Dollar is positive against most of the major currencies unemployment claim data and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data came out better than expected. Looking ahead Non-Farm Employment Change data is expected better and Unemployment Rate data is expected neutral. Support is seen at 74.74 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 75.53 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook remains neutral for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).


DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.