India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /10_Jan_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear reader,

Global Highlights:

The dollar rose slightly overall despite last week's Non Farm Payrolls in December came at 103k vs. 175k forecast. Bernanke also spoke to the senate stating there were signs the US may have self-sustaining growth. Peripheral Eurozone debt was sold amid concerns over large funding requirements this week. 10yr yields in Portugal rose 15bps, while Spain, Belgium and Hungary also were seen suffering. The Aussie had failed on a few occasions to break back above 1.0000 levels after the soft US Jobs data. Looking Ahead today, ECB President Trichet Speech while UK Halifax HPI m/m is expected at -0.3% vs. -0.1% previously. Meanwhile China' trade balance declined to 13.1B vs. 22.9B previously.

Technical Highlights:

EUR/USD: The Euro is currently trading at 1.2920 levels after peripheral EU bond yields rose again last Friday with persistent concerns about debt contagion. Looking ahead today, ECB President Trichet Speech, French Industrial Production m/m Expected 1.1% vs. -0.8% previously. Immediate support comes at 1.2831(Lower H4 Bollinger) followed by 1.2540 (Lower Weekly Bollinger), while resistance comes at 1.3160(Middle Daily Bollinger) followed by 1.3260 (200 H4 EMA). EURINR (58.49) exporters hold for covers near 59.20 levels or above and importers cover for Jan partially at current levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 58.20 - 58.65 today. Short term and Medium term: Bearish. EUR/USD target: 1.25 levels

GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5546 levels. Looking Ahead today, Halifax HPI m/m expected at -0.3% vs. -0.1% previously. Immediate resistance comes near 1.5615 (200 Daily EMA) while support at 1.5490(Middle Daily Bollinger). GBPINR (70.42) Exporters hold for covers near 71 levels or above and importers cover partially for Jan at 70.20 levels or below. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 70.25 - 70.65 levels today. Short Term and Medium Term: Neutral to slight Bearish.

USD/JPY: USD/JPY is currently trading at 83.03 levels. Overall USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.84 and a high of 83.68 before at around 83.03 last Friday. Immediate strong resistance is at 83.40 (100 Daily EMA) while support is at 82.90 levels (55 Daily EMA) followed by 82.75(21 Daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book Jan and Feb month's exposure around 81 levels and Yen Importers had already been advised to cover their exposures near 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness for the pair Target 80 and below.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 0.9964 levels. Retail Sales m/m was 0.3% as expected. Immediate support comes at 0.9920 levels (55 Daily EMA) followed by 0.9770 levels (100 Daily EMA) while immediate resistance is at 1.0010 levels (21 Daily EMA) followed by 1.0256 levels (High of 31.12.2010). Exporters are suggested to book Jan and Feb month's exposure above 1.0100 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: Gold is currently trading near the support levels at 1374.75 after testing near 1350 levels last week. Overall the yellow metal had made a low of 1352.58 and a high of 1378.85. Immediate resistance is at $1388.70 followed by $1400 levels while immediate support comes near $1353 levels. Buying on dips is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 81.05 levels after last week's US payrolls data failed to meet expectations, as concerns over Eurozone debt issuance weighed on sentiment. There is a support at 79.80 followed by 78.83 levels and resistance is at 81.50 levels. Breakout of resistance can take the index higher towards 82 levels. Medium Term: Bullish

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

Join the Discussion