Technical Outlook:

EUR: Euro has continued its decline after Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's credit rating. Long-term rating and short-term rating were downgraded from BB- and B to B and C respectively. It is currently trading at 1.4335 after making a low of 1.4242. On the data front, Germany trade surplus extend to EUR 15.2b in March versus consensus of EUR 12.5b. Euro zone Sentix investor confidence dropped sharply to 10.9 as compared to expectation of 14.3. Looking ahead, French Industrial Production m/m is expected to come better at 0.5%. Short term support is seen at 1.4125(100Day EMA in Daily) while the resistance is seen near at 1.4443(200Days EMA in H4).EUR/INR (64.08) Exporters can hold to cover May exposure while importers can cover partially below 64 levels and wait for further cover on dips towards 63.50levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.80-64.25 levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness

GBP: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6410 levels. The Sterling is expected to stay under pressure on concerns that the Bank of England may downgrade its growth forecasts later this week and add to expectations that UK interest rates will not rise in the coming months. On the data front Retail sales surged at 5.2% compare to the previous month's -3.5%, their fastest annual pace in five years, house prices fell more slowly in April. Near term support is seen near 1.6328(55Days EMA Daily) and 1.6200(100Days EMA in H4) and the Resistance can be seen near 1.6451 (21Days EMA in Daily). GBP/INR is at (73.30). Exporters can cover May exposure on 74 onwards while the importers can look to hedge partially at 72.80 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.80-73 .35 levels. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

JPY: JPY is currently trading at 80.31 levels. Resistance is seen at 81.49 (21 days daily EMA) while Support is seen near 79.80 levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 83.50 plus levels. Short term: Slight Bullish for the pair.
AUD: Aussie is currently trading at 1.0781 levels. The Australian trade balance has come better than expectations at $1.740b. Australian monetary policy makers see inflation rates to be quite high in the quarter of January to March, on natural floods, while the bank aims to keep inflation between 2% and 3%, and the Australian currency's strength has help slow parts of the economy. Immediate Resistance is seen near 1.08124levels while support is seen at 1.0721 levels (21 days daily EMA in H4). Exporters are suggested to book exposure around 1.0850 levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0600 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1510.05 levels. Resistance is seen at 1517.68 levels and Support is seen at 1505.88 levels (21 days daily EMA). Medium term: Bullish.

Oil: Crude Oil futures surged back above the $100, currently trading at $101levels. Resistance is seen at 102.35 levels (21 days 4hr EMA) while support is seen at 94.70 levels (200 days daily EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 74.68 levels. Looking ahead Import Prices m/m data is expected weak at 1.8% versus 2.7% previously. Support is seen near 74.15 (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen near 75.31 levels (55 days daily EMA). Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).