The Dollar has still maintained its bearish outlook against majors. US Core Retail Sales m/m came out better last Friday at 0.7% vs 0.6% previously, Retail Sales m/m came out better at 1.0% vs 0.7% previously and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came out weaker at 68.2 vs 77.5 previously. The Euro showed a strong rebound towards the end of the week after Eurozone leaders reached agreement on a German proposed competitiveness pact where they have guarantee greater economic and fiscal policy coordination and to enact budget rules into law. GBP PPI Input m/m came out weaker at 1.1% vs 2.3% previously. The yen also slid against the dollar, reversing earlier gains after hedge funds unloaded the Japanese currency after the Bank of Japan added a record 15 trillion yen in emergency same-day funding to keep money markets stable. Asian Stocks tumbles as an after effect of Earthquake, Tsunami and possible meltdown in nuclear reactors in Japan as uncertainty about the real impact of Friday's earthquake and tsunami are likely to see investors adopting a cautious stance. Japan's bonds
rose for a second day straight on speculation that impact from the nation's strongest earthquake on record will affect the economic recovery.
EUR/USD: Euro rebounded on the pact agreement and had made a high neat 1.3978 levels. Industrial Production m/m is expected better today. Immediate resistance is at 1.3956 levels (H4 Upper Bollinger) followed by 1.4050 while Immediate support is seen at 1.3870 levels followed by 1.3825 levels. EURINR (62.93) exporters can cover partially near current levels for March exposure and Importers can cover partially near 62.35 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.75 - 63.10 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: bullish.
GBP/USD: Pound was hovering near last week's closing levels with daily stochastic showing oversold levels. Immediate strong support is comes at 1.6050 and if breached then it would dive towards 1.5944 levels and resistance is seen near 1.6144 levels (Trend line). GBP/INR (72.56) March month's exporters should cover partially above 72.75 levels and importers cover near 72.15 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.40-72.70 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: The earthquake in Japan caused tremors in the USD/JPY pair but contrary to the market expectation. On Friday the pair had a nearly 200 pip fall, but stopped its sell off at support of 81.5o levels. Further today it had breached the support of 81.35 levels but sooner retreated to trade near 82.25 levels. Immediate resistance is at 82.40 levels while immediate strong support is at 81.92 levels and 81.35 levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially on dips while Yen Importers can cover their exposure towards 83 levels and above. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness
AUD/USD: The Aussie nosedived after making a high at 1.0150 levels after China's weak data. Immediate support is seen near 1.0050 levels (55 Daily EMA) followed by 1.0010 levels while Immediate resistance is seen near 1.0090 levels (H4 100 EMA). Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure partially near 1.0150 levels, while Importers can cover their exposure near 0.9950 levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The yellow metal rebounded from last week's close and was hovering near 1422 levels over some safe heaven demand due to global concerns. Meanwhile resistance comes at 1436.67 and 1445.05 levels(07/03/2011 high) while support is at 1414.57 and 1411.52 levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: The US dollar index is currently trading near 76.73 levels, down by 0.70%. The DI had hit support last week on medium and short term charts. This had produced a bounce. Immediate support is at 76.38 levels while immediate resistance is at 76.84 levels followed by 77.06 levels. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Neutral.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.