India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /15_July_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook:EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4170 levels. The Euro fell to 1.4120 after Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the central bank is not yet ready to embark upon a third round of quantitative easing. Looking ahead Italian Trade Balance is expected better. Watch out for the Bank Stress test results. Support is seen at around 1.4038 levels (200 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 1.4275 levels (21 days daily EMA). EUR/INR (63.09): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 63.70 levels while importers can cover short term exposure at 62.00. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.80-63.45 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish.
GBP/USD: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6150 levels. The British Pound has found itself in a range-bound trade against the dollar. Support is seen at around 1.6070 levels (21days Daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 1.4275 levels (21 days daily EMA). GBP/INR (71.90): Exporters can cover short term exposure near 72.25 levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 71.00 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 71.70-72.15 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 79.16 levels. As the dollar is seen to stay below 80 yen for a longer time, expectations are increasing for the BOJ's additional easing. Support is seen at around 76.40 levels while resistance is seen at 81.40 levels (21 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Importers can cover above 80.00 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain Bearish for the pair.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.0730 levels. With a lack of domestic releases on the economic data the Aussie will be looking towards offshore events for its direction. Support is seen at 1.0674 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.0800 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at 1.0800 levels and above while Importers can cover partially their near term exposure at 1.0500. Short term: bullish. Medium term: bearish.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1581.33 levels. Gold headed for a second weekly increase after rallying to a record yesterday on concern that the wrangling in the U.S. over the Federal debt ceiling and the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe will boost haven demand. Support is seen at around 1541.00 (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1600.00 levels Outlook: Medium term Bullish target 1650.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 95.71 levels. Strong Support is seen at 95.90 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 98.22 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term Bearish, Medium term neutral.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 75.21 levels. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said again yesterday that the central bank is not yet ready to embark upon a third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. Bernanke clarified that inflation levels are much higher thus indicating the Fed will require a few more months of weakening data before intervention will be considered. Standard & Poor's became the second ratings company this week to say it may downgrade the U.S.'s top credit grade. Looking ahead Core CPI m/m is expected weak and Consumer Sentiment is expected better. Support is seen at 74.35 levels (Trend line support) and Resistance is seen at 75.38 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains Slight bullish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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