Euro was indeed the weakest current last week in spite of strong GDP data from Eurozone and in particular from Germany. Euro's weakness could be attributed to resurfacing of concern on sovereign risk as well as imbalances inside the Eurozone. Euro /Usd is currently trading at 1.2790 levels and it is holding a short term bearish outlook with an important support at 1.2700 levels. Breaking of 1.2700 levels in euro and break of 83.45 in dollar index would be bearish on euro. Medium term Neutral.
The pair is currently trading at 1.5605 levels and GBP/USD's sharp decline last week indicates that a short term top is at least in place at 1.5997 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968. Focus will now turn to near term trend line support (now at 1.5547). Sustained trading below there will indicate that whole rise from 1.4230 has finished earlier than we thought and will bring deeper fall to 1.5123 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4230 to 1.5997 at 1.5114) for confirmation. On the upside, break of 1.5997 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will now remain on the downside. Medium term Neutral.
The pair is currently trading at 85.85 levels. The Yen remains under pressure because of the verbal intervention by Japanese Officials. We expect that the pair would be moving towards a 87 levels soon. Medium term : Yen bearish towards 87-88 levels.
The Aud/Usd is currently trading at 0.8928 levels .The pair could move till 0.8500-8700 levels where buying could be initiated. Medium term Bullish.
Gold is currently trading at 1218 levels. Immediate support comes at 1195-1201 levels. Buying can be initiated around these levels. Medium Term- Bullish
Dollar managed to hold above 80 cluster level and rebounded strongly since then. The development reaffirmed our original view that fall from 88.70 was merely a correction to medium term rise from 74.19 only. We'll stay bullish in dollar index as long as 82.11 support holds and expect a test on 83.45 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 88.70 to 80.08 at 83.37). Decisive break there will confirm that whole fall from 88.70 has completed and should bring further rise to 85.40 at least. However, break of 82.11 support will dampen the immediate bullish view and turn outlook neutral first. Medium term Bullish on break of 83.45.