EUR: Euro is currently trading at 1.4790 levels. The Euro approached a 16-month high against the dollar on speculation that ECB intends to raise interest rates further to boost the appeal of the common currency. The ECB raised interest rates on April 7 by a quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent. Looking ahead today will be the statement of ECB president Trichet. Immediate support for euro is seen at 1.4770 and 1.4643(21day EMA & 55Day EMA respectively) while the resistance is seen at 1.4881(Recent high) EUR/INR is at (65.60) Exporters can cover at current levels for May exposure while importers can cover below 64.50 and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 65.40-65.90 levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
GBP: GBP is currently trading at 1.6660 levels after making a high of 1.6738. Not much movement is expected in the GBP on account of British markets being closed today. Immediate resistance is seen near 1.6743(Recent High) and the support seen at 1.6630 (21day EMA in H4). GBP/INR (73.97) Exporters should cover near term exposure at current levels while the importers can look to hedge near 73.30 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.70-74.10levels. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
JPY: The Japanese Yen (81.37) depreciated against the dollar on speculation that the central bank will take measures to contain the yen's appreciation. Resistance is seen near 81.58 (21 days 4 hourly EMA) while support is seen near 80.98 levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 84 plus levels. Short term: Bullish for the pair.
AUD: The commodity currency is currently trading at 1.0955 after it made a high of 1.1010 on speculation that increasing commodity prices will keep pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates. The currency fails to breach the psychological resistance of 1.10 levels as selling pressure increases around this level. The Australian HPI q/q data came out weaker at -1.7% versus 0.8% previously. The strength in the currency is supported by the weak dollar and bullish run in yellow metal. Resistance is seen at 1.1000 levels while Support is seen at 1.0890 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA). Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0700 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Oil: Crude oil is currently trading at 112.79 levels. Oil seems consolidated on signs China's economic growth may moderate tempering fuel demand in the world's second biggest crude-consuming nation. Resistance is seen near 114.17 levels (Recent High) while support is seen near 111.57 levels (55 days 4 hrly EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1544.67 levels as the yellow metal advances against the greenback on grounds of weak dollar and it seems the central banks of various countries are now on a buying frenzy to reduce their reliance on the rapidly weakening US Dollar. Resistance is seen at 1600 levels and Support is seen at 1531.51 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA). Gold seems to maintain bullishness despite news of moderating China economy growth. Medium term: Bullish
Dollar Index: Dollar Index is currently trading at 73.09 as the rally in major commodity and currencies continues leading to further weakness in dollar. Last Friday Employment Cost Index q/q data came out at 0.6% vs 0.4% previously and Personal Spending m/m came out neutral at 0.6%. Looking ahead today ISM Manufacturing PMI data is expected weaker at 59.9 vs. 61.2 previously. Near term support is seen at 72.83 levels and resistance is seen near 73.32 levels (21 days 4 hourly EMA). Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).