India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /20_Jan_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear Reader,

Global Highlights:

The Dollar weaken as the US dollar index in the Asian session touched a low of 78.3 yesterday although recovered a little later on. EUR began positive after going above 1.35 for the first time since 23 November before settling just below due to an article in a German magazine causing some confusion suggesting Germany were calling for a restructure of Greek debt. Eurozone current account deficit is now at ?11.2bn in Nov which is the highest in 2010. The Sterling fell to day lows of 1.5930 after the UK claimant count unemployment unexpectedly fell by 4.1k, and model fund buying helped inflate EUR/GBP to 0.8438. Japan's tertiary industry index rose 0.6% in November after a revised 0.3% gain in Oct. No big surprises from BOC monetary policy report. Canada manufacturing sales fell 0.8% in Nov. AUD/USD slipped below parity despite Hu/Obama agreeing on $45bln worth of US exports to China.

Technical Highlights:

EUR/USD: The Euro currently trading at 1.3444 levels after making a high of 1.3538 levels overnight. Looking ahead today ECB monthly Bulletin and German PPI m/m. Immediate support comes at 1.3385 (21 H4 EMA and H4 Middle Bollinger) while resistance comes at 1.3538 levels (H4 Upper Bollinger). EURINR (61.28) exporters should cover at current levels and importers cover for Jan and Feb partially below 60.00 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 61.10- 61.50 today. Short term and Medium term: Neutral to Bullish

GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5934 levels after December Claimant Count was -4k vs. -1.2k previously. Immediate support comes near 1.5837 (H4 Lower Bollinger) while resistance at 1.5946 (H4 Middle Bollinger) followed by 1.6055 (H4 Upper Bollinger). GBPINR (72.63) Exporters should partially cover at current levels and importers cover partially for Jan towards towards 71 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.50 - 72.90 levels today. Short Term and Medium Term: Neutral to Bullish

USD/JPY: USD/JPY is currently trading at 82.21 levels. Immediate resistance is at 82.45 levels (Daily middle Bollinger) followed by 82.70(21 Daily EMA) while immediate support is at 81.90 (H4 Lower Bollinger).Yen Exporters to book Jan and Feb month's exposure around 81 levels and Yen Importers to cover their exposures near 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness for the pair Target 80 and below.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading below the parity levels near 0.9945. MI Inflation Expectations came at 4.6% vs. 2.8% previously. Immediate support comes at 0.9920 levels (55 Daily EMA) followed by 0.9835 levels (Weekly Middle Bollinger) while immediate resistance is at parity levels. Exporters are suggested to book Jan and Feb month's exposure towards 1.1000 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: Gold is currently trading near 1368.25 levels. Overall the yellow metal had traded with a low of $1366 and high of $1379 before closing at $1370. Support for gold is near 1356.30 levels (100 Daily EMA) and immediate resistance is at 1376.60 (55 Daily EMA) followed by 1378.64 levels (21 Daily EMA). Buying on dips is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 78.77 levels after breaking below its six week range yesterday to 78.30 levels. December Housing Starts were at 529k vs. 550k expected and Building Permits at 635k vs. 555k forecast. Looking ahead today, Unemployment claims expected lower at 422K vs. 445K earlier along with existing home sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which are expected better. Immediate Support at 78.57 (Daily Fibo) levels and resistance is at 79.26 levels (Daily Fibo). Staying above 80.00 levels can take the index higher. Medium Term: Neutral

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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