India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /20_July_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook:EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4160 levels. Euro rallied over night as it appeared European Union officials are moving towards a resolution aimed at containing the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Support is seen at 1.4041 levels (200 days daily EMA) while strong resistance is seen at 1.4227 levels (21 and 100 days daily EMA). EUR/INR (62.83): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 63.20 levels while importers can cover short term exposure at 62.40. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.50-63.20 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target 1.3800
GBP/USD: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6126. Sterling rallied over night supported by Euro on speculation the Euro zone debt crisis will be contained. Support is seen at 1.6083 levels (200 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1.6153 levels (55 days daily EMA). GBP/INR (71.60): Exporters can cover short term exposure near 72.00 levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 71.20 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 71.35-72.00 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target - 1.5800
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.0724 levels. The commodity currency is positive on the back of risk sentiment in the market although MI Leading Index m/m data came out weaker this morning. The RBA said that inflation data due for release next Wednesday would be the key in determining its views as to the timing of the next move in rate. Support is seen at 1.0672 levels (55 days 4hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.0747 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and above while Importers can partially cover their near term exposure at 1.0500 levels. Short term: bullish. Medium term: bearish Target 1.0500.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 79.14 levels. Looking Ahead, June Trade Balance is forecasted at -165bn vs. -853bn previously. Bank of Japan's main concern is to contain the appreciating Yen against the Dollar so that the country's exports are not rendered uncompetitive in the international market. Support is seen at around 78.60 levels while resistance is seen at 79.89 levels (21 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Importers can cover above 80.50 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain Bearish for the pair Target 78.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 98.63 levels. Oil rallied before the Oil Inventories data on speculation that shrinking oil stockpiles and signs of economic recovery in the US will boost fuel demand in US which is the world's biggest consumer of oil. Support is seen at 97.50 levels (55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 100 levels. Outlook: Short term Bearish, Medium term neutral Target 95.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1590.73 levels. Gold showed a correction after moving sharply upwards in recent days. Support is seen at 1572.41 levels (55 days 4hrly EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1600 levels Outlook: Medium term Bullish target 1650.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 75.14 levels. Dollar is slightly weak on the back of risk sentiment as it appeared European Union officials are moving towards a resolution aimed at containing the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Housing starts in June also hit a 5-month high in the United States. Looking ahead Existing Home Sales data is expected better. Strong Support is seen at 75.07 levels (21 and 55 days daily EMA) and Resistance is seen at 75.51 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook remains Slight bullish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish Target 77.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved. 

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