India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /21_Apr_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.4577 levels. Greenback fell to a 15-month low against the Euro after better then expected Spain Bond auctions yesterday. German PPI m/m came weaker than expected at 0.4%. Support comes near 1.4419 ( 21 days 4 Hrly EMA). Minor Resistance is seen near 1.4600 levels . EUR/INR (64.48) Exporters can cover at current levels for April exposure while importers can cover below 63.50 levels and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 64.00 - 64.60 levels today. Short term: Bullish and Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
GBP/USD: Pound is currently trading at 1.6433 levels. Looking ahead Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to come better at 18.8b and Retail Sales m/m expected to come better at -0.5%. Near term Support is seen near 1.6315 (55 Day 4hrly EMA) while the Resistance is seen around 1.6475. /INR (72.73) Exporters should cover near 72.90-73.00 regions and Short term Importers can cover near 72.40 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.40 to 72.90 levels. Short Term: Bullish and Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 82.25. Yesterday JPY's Trade Balance Data came out weaker than expected at 0.10T as Exports are down 2.2%yrwhile imports are up 11.9%yr. Japanese demand for bank loans have risen for the first time in two years as the nation's strongest earthquake on record compelled companies to borrow. Minor Resistance is seen near 82.85 (55 and 100 days daily EMA) while Support is seen near 82.00 levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 84 plus levels. Short term: Bullish for the pair
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar is currently trading at 1.0761 levels. Aud rallied when supported by a government report which showed producer prices increased more than economists forecast in the first quarter indicating that Australian economy growth is accelerating and after record breaking performance by gold which is now trading above 1500$ levels. AUD PPI q/q came out better this morning at 1.2% vs 1.0% previously. Resistance is seen at 1.0800 levels while Support is seen near 1.0590 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA) Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0500 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Dollar Index: Dollar Index is trading at 74.35 levels. The Dollar fell despite positive Earning Reports of US yesterday. Yesterday Existing Home Sales data came out better than expected at 5.10m. Looking ahead unemployment Claimsto come better 394k. Near term Support is seen at 74.17 levels and Minor Resistance is seen near 74.86 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA). Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post June-July)
Gold: Gold is currentlytrading at $1505.4 levels. Gold is gaining because of rising demand for the metal as a hedge against rising inflation and uncertainty across. Psychological resistance is seen near 1520 levels while on the downside, buying is expected near support at 1481.55 levels (21 days daily EMA). Gold seems to be in super bull phase. Medium term: Bullish.

Oil: Crude oil is currently trading at $112.05 per barrel. Oil is trading high on account of indications of improvement in the US economy and unrest in Middle east which raises the market speculation that demand for fuel may increase which results into rising demand for the Black Gold. Resistance is seen near 113.38 levels and Support is seen near 108.33 (21 days daily EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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