The U.S. dollar was mostly positive post better than expected housing and employment data along with selloff seen in Gold on speculation of further tightening policy from China to fight inflation . EUR moved higher yesterday after speculators were seen buying EUR/GBP. Eurozone ministers are considering widening the scope of the EFSF to purchase government bonds in the secondary market. Selling was seen in commodity driven currency Aussie after huge selloff in gold overnight and AUD Import Prices q/q falling below expectations at -3.8% vs 0.8% previously this morning. New Zealand retail sales improved in November at 1.5% as compared to -2.4% previously.
EUR/USD: Euro currently trading at 1.3523 levels after making a low of 1.3395 levels overnight and had hold its strength. Looking ahead today German Ifo Business Climate expected better at 110.0 vs. 109.9 previously. Immediate support comes at 1.3410 (daily Fibo) while resistance comes at 1.3539 levels (Weekly 200 and 100 EMA). EURINR (61.63) exporters should cover partially at current levels and importers cover for Jan and Feb partially towards 60.00 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 61.40 - 61.80 today. Short term and Medium term: Neutral to Bullish
GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5939 levels. Looking ahead today Retail Sales m/m expected weak at -0.2% vs. 0.3% previously. Immediate support comes near 1.5870 (H4 Lower Bollinger) while resistance at 1.5925 (4hr 21 EMA) followed by 1.5939 (Weekly 100 EMA). GBPINR (72.76) Exporters should partially cover at current levels and importers cover for Jan towards towards 71 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.60 - 72.90 levels today. Short Term and Medium Term: Neutral to Bullish
USD/JPY: USD/JPY is currently trading at 82.96 levels. Immediate resistance is at 83.27 levels (daily 100 EMA) followed by 83.60 (Weekly 21 EMA) while immediate support is at 82.88 (daily 55 EMA and Fibo). Yen Exporters to book Jan and Feb month's exposure around 81 levels and Yen Importers to cover their exposures near 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness for the pair Target 80 and below.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading below the parity levels near 0.9854. Import Prices q/q came out weaker at -3.8% vs 0.8% previously. Immediate support comes at 0.9815 levels (Weekly Fibo and middle bollinger) followed by 0.9798 levels (daily 100 EMA) while immediate resistance is at 0.9896 (Daily Fibo). Exporters are suggested to book Jan and Feb month's exposure towards 1.0000 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure towards 0.9830 levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: Gold is currently trading near 1348.57 levels after falling to as low as 1342.93 levels overnight tracking strong dollar gains against majors. Support for gold is near 1341.71 levels (Weekly 21 EMA) and immediate resistance is at 1355.99 (100 daily EMA) followed by 1375.25 levels (55 Daily EMA). Buying on dips is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 78.82 levels after strong economic data and weak commodities. Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to 404k vs. 445k previously while December Home Sales was at 5.28m vs. 4.88m previously. Immediate Support at 78.57 (Daily Fibo) levels and resistance is at 79.26 levels (Daily Fibo). Staying above 80.00 levels can take the index higher. Medium Term: Neutral
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.