India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /22_Mar_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear Reader,

Global Markets:

The Dollar is under pressure against all currencies except for JPY due to intervention news. US February Existing Home Sales fell -9.6%. Risk Appetite in the market help to Euro rallied above 1.42 levels and Sterling rallied above 1.6300 levels. The Yen is hovering around the 81levels as Yen buyers are cautious due to intervention in the currency. The market continues to monitor the situation in Japan and the unrest in Libya. The high yielding Aussie is benefited from higher commodities and strong equity markets. Oil spiked above the 100$ per barrel mark on concerns of airstrikes in Libya and unrest in Yemen intensifying. Gold is bullish as investors are parking their money in the alternate safe heavens.

Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD: Euro pushed towards 1.4200 levels as market is already discounting the news over the rate hike during the next ECB meeting. Immediate resistance is at 1.4282 (04.11.2010 High) while Immediate support is seen at 1.4112 levels (H4 21 days EMA) followed by 1.4102 (H4 21 Middle Bollinger). Daily Stochastic is showing overbought levels. EURINR (63.80): Exporters can cover at current levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 63.00-63.30 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.60 - 63.95 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: bullish.

GBP/USD: GBP Sterling traded above 1.6300 levels with market more focused on MPC Member Sentance Speech today. Support is seen near 1.6277 levels (H4 100% Fibo) and Resistance is seen near 1.6360. Further today, CPI y/y and Public Sector Net Borrowing expected better. GBP/INR (73.37) March month's exporters should cover at current levels and short term importers can cover near 72.75 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.20-73.55 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish

USD/JPY: The pair is trading in a consolidated range of 30-40 pips for last few sessions and market still remains cautious for further Yen intervention. Immediate support is seen near 80.86 followed by 80.40 levels while immediate resistance is seen near 81.18 followed by 81.58 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 81.25 - 50 regions levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 80.50 levels. Short term Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish

AUD/USD: The Aussie is hovering near the 1.0061 resistance levels (Daily 21 Middle Bollinger), if broken can push the commodity currency near 1.0120 levels. Higher commodity prices supported Aussie. Immediate support is seen near 0.9871 levels. Support is at 1.0031(H4 200 EMA) followed by 0.9990 - 1.00115 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure near 1.0100 levels, while Importers can cover their exposure partially near 0.9950 levels. Short Term: slight Bearish Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: Safe haven buying was still seen in the asset over geopolitical worries. Overall gold traded with a low of $1424 and high of USD $1434.85. Support is at 1419(Daily 21 Middle Bollinger) followed by 1413 levels while resistance is seen near 1442 - 1445 levels Buy on Dips. Medium term: Bullish.

Dollar Index: The US dollar index is currently trading near oversold levels at 75.23 after February Existing Home Sales fell -9.6%. Treasury Sec Geithner Speech is due today. Support is at 75.23 levels while immediate resistance is at 75.77 levels followed by 76.20 levels. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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