The Euro declined for a second day from a 4 1/2-month high as worries about debt problems in Portugal and Ireland. European Union leaders are struggling to find a permanent solution to the region's fiscal crisis. Portugal's parliament might collapse as it votes on budget cuts that have divided lawmakers. The sterling rallied, holding near a 14-month high, after stronger than expected inflation data from UK increased the chances of an interest rate rise within the next few months. The JPY slipped to 80.90, after the G7 countries sold it last week in their first joint intervention in more than a decade. Oil rose rallied amid concern that increased allied attacks in Libya will prolong supply disruptions and the escalating turmoil in the Middle East and North African regions may curtail shipments further. Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days as Japanese companies announced production halts and earthquakes struck near the Fukushima nuclear plant that was crippled after a March 11 temblor and tsunami.
EUR/USD: Euro was supported by rate hike expectations in the near term while at the same time there were concerns regarding increasing debt cost. Immediate resistance is at 1.4224 while Immediate support is seen at 1.4112 levels (H4 21 days EMA) followed by 1.4152 and 1.4049 levels. Daily Stochastic is showing overbought levels. EURINR (63.80): Exporters can cover at current levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 63.00-63.35 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.65 - 63.95 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: bullish. Looking ahead, Industrial New Orders m/m expected to decline.
GBP/USD: Sterling gained and had made high at 1.6400 levels after Feb CPI increased 0.7% m/m to bring the y/y to 4.4%. Today market will be focused on MPC Meeting Minutes for rate hike decisions. Support is seen near 1.6275 levels (Daily 100% Fibo) and Resistance is seen near 1.6380. GBP/INR (73.63) March month's exporters should cover at current levels and short term importers can cover near 73.00 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.45-73.75 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: The pair was very steady near 80.90 levels as market was more focused after Japan Finance Minister restated that G7 countries will monitor markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate. Immediate support is seen near 79.93 followed by 79.68 levels while immediate resistance is seen near 81.14 followed by 81.50 and 81.92 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 81.00 regions levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 81.50-75 areas. Short term Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish
AUD/USD: The commodity currency rallied to touch a high at 1.0128 levels led by gains in crude oil and yellow metal prices. Immediate support is seen near 1.0056 levels. Resistance is at 1.0101(H1 21 EMA) followed by 1.0130 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure near 1.0125 levels, while Importers can cover their exposure partially near 0.9975 levels. Short Term: slight Bearish Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The yellow metal was supported by safe haven buying over geopolitical worries. Overall gold traded with a low of $1419 and high of USD $1432. Support is at 1419(Daily 21 Middle Bollinger) followed by 1414 levels while resistance is seen near 1442 - 1445 levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: The DI was up 0.23% at 75.597 points after falling to 75.249 points, lowest since December 2009. While, US stocks DJIA -17 points closed at 12018, S&P -4 points closed at 1293 and NASDAQ -8 points closed at 2683. Support is at 75.24 levels while immediate resistance is at 75.54 levels followed by 76.00 levels (H4 21 Upper Bollinger and 55 EMA). Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish. Looking further today, New Home Sales will probably improve slightly.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.