India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /24_Mar_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear Reader,

Global Markets:

Dollar was strong as Euro and GBP fell over Portugal's political stability which continued to weigh on the euro while Sterling rally was hampered by the deepening division on the BOE MPC and the UK budget's gloomy growth outlook. US Treasuries rose after Spanish newspaper said Moody's Investors Service is planning to downgrade the nation's banks, boosting demand for U.S. government debt. US New Home Sales came out weaker at 250K vs. 301K previously. EUR Industrial New Orders m/m came out weaker at 0.1% vs. 2.7% previously. New Zealand Currency rose against all of it 16 most traded counterparts as country's GDP expanded 0.2 percent in the final three months of last year. NZD GDP q/q came out better this morning at 0.2% vs. -0.2% previously. Oil hovering above 105$ per barrel as tensions in MENA regions continues. AUD CB Leading Index m/m came out weaker at 0.1% vs. 0.7% previously.

Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD: Euro nosedived towards 1.4080 levels after Portuguese 5 year government bonds rose a further 20bps in yield to 8.18%. Fears over Portugal's political stability continued to weigh on the euro. Today, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI due. Immediate resistance is at 1.4129 and 1.4172 levels while immediate support is seen at 1.4063 levels followed by 1.3985 levels. Daily Stochastic is showing overbought levels. EURINR (63.10): Exporters can cover at current levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 62.50 - 62.75 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.85 - 63.25 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: bullish.

GBP/USD: Sterling fell to 1.6217 levels after BOE minutes revealed no change in the voting pattern. Today market will be focused on Retail Sales m/m which is expected to fall. Support is seen near 1.6212 (H4 55 EMA) followed by 1.6189 and Resistance is seen near 1.6275 (Daily 100% Fibo) and 1.6372. GBP/INR (72.76) March month's exporters should cover near 72.85 - 73.00 regions and short term importers can cover near 72.25 - 50 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.60-73.90 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish

USD/JPY: Japan's trade balance returned to 0.56T vs. 0.27T in February on solid exports to Asia. The pair was steady trading near Y81 levels with daily stochastic showing slight downside movement. Immediate support is seen near 80.72 followed by 79.94 levels while immediate resistance is seen near 81.10 followed by 81.23 and 81.44 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 80.75 - 81 regions levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 81.50-75 areas. Short term Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish

AUD/USD: Aussie rallied for fifth consecutive session and had toughed high at 1.0142 levels over rally in commodity prices. Today RBA commented that major banking systems may face slow growth in future. Immediate support is seen near 1.0068 followed by 1.0040(200 Daily EMA). Resistance is at 1.0171(H1 21 Upper Bollinger) followed by 1.0239 levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure near 1.0125 - 1.0200 levels and above, while Importers can cover their exposure near parity. Short Term: slight Bearish Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: Gold spiked towards $ 1441.05 areas due to safe haven buying over increasing geopolitical worries. Overall gold traded with a low of $1425.20 and high of $1441.05. Support is at 1429.75 while resistance is seen near 1445.04 levels (07/03/2011 High). Medium term: Bullish.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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