The Dollar is weak against most of the majors except against the cable as Risk Appetite grips the market. US Unemployment Claims came out better at 382K vs. 387K previously. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m came out better at -0.6% vs. -3.0% previously. The Euro traded in positive note as interest rate hike overshadow concerns on debt crisis. S&P downgraded Portugal's credit ratings by two notches to BBB. Portugal bond yield rallied around 7.9% while 5 year yield touches 8.5% after resignation of Prime Minster Socrate. Portugal is expected to ask for bailout from EU in the near future and it is said it will need around $99bn. EUR Flash Services PMI, German Flash Services PMI, French Flash Services PMI and French Flash Manufacturing PMI came out better than expected. GBP weakens further after worse than expected retail sales data. GBP Retail Sales m/m came out weaker at -0.8% vs. 1.5% previously. The Yen is consolidated against the USD as it is trapped by real money selling on the upper side and BOJ releasing liquidity on the downside. JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y came out neutral this morning at -0.3% as expected. Asian stocks rose as construction firms gained on optimism demand will grow as Japan rebuilds after its worst earthquake and amidst signs the U.S. economy is strengthening.
EUR/USD: Euro is trading at 1.4167 after falling from high of 1.4220 as S&P cut rating of Portugal by two notches to BBB today morning, further today EUR German Ifo Business Climate expected weak today. Ten-year Portuguese bond yields rose towards new post Euro highs of 7.7%. Immediate resistance is at 1.4207 levels while immediate support is seen at 1.4143. Daily Stochastic is showing slight downward movement. EURINR (63.23): Exporters can cover at current levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 62.80 - 62.90 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.85 - 63.35 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bullish.
GBP/USD: Sterling fell to 1.6116 levels after weaker than expected retail sales. Support is seen near 1.6084 (55 days EMA) followed by 1.5980 (100 days EMA) and resistance is seen near 1.6135 (4hrly 200 days EMA). GBP/INR (71.92) March month's exporters should cover near 72.30 - 72.40 regions and short term importers can cover near 71.65 - 80 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 71.65 to 72.20 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: National Core CPI y/y came stable at -0.3%. The pair was hovering near Y81 levels with BOJ likely to give support on the downside. Slight downside movement is expected today near 80.75 support levels while upside movement can reach towards 81.06 - 81.38 resistance levels. Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 80.75 - 81 regions levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 81.25-50 areas. Short term Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish
AUD/USD: Aussie reclaimed for consecutive seventh session reaching 1.0228 near all time highs just above 1.0250. The pair continues to look well supported above parity for now and broke through resistance at 1.020. Next resistance comes in at the intraday high of 1.0256 as on 31st Dec, 2010. Immediate support is seen near 1.0116 followed by 1.0063. Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure near current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0050 levels. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The metal ($ 1433) extended gains due to safe haven demand for the asset over global worries. It touched to fresh all time highs at $1447.70 before reversing sharply to $1423.68 support levels. Support is at 1429.75 followed by 1419 levels while resistance is seen near 1445.04 levels (07/03/2011 High). Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: DI is trading at 75.67 after falling to daily low of 75.45, US Dow closed with 84.54 pts positive and Nasdaq closed with 38.12 pts positive. Support is at 75.31 levels (Daily lower Bollinger) while immediate resistance is at 75.73 (4hrly middle Bollinger) levels followed by 76.00 levels (H4 21 Upper Bollinger and 55 EMA). US Final GDP is expected better today and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment expected weaker today. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.