India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /27_Jan_2011

By @ibtimes on

Dear Reader,

Global Highlights:

The Dollar remains under pressure and slipped to 11-week lows after FED voting to keep rates unchanged although New Home Sales data came out strong at 329k as compared to 280k previously keeping the investor sentiment strong and stock pushing new high. The euro clung near a two-month high in early in the morning on easing Euro zone Debt concern. Euro chopped between 1.3645 and 1.3720 levels. Yen is stronger today on note of trade surplus widened to 0.71T as compared to 0.54T and Japan exports is showing significant improvements with the increase in global demand. The Aussie remains trapped in range of 0.99 and 1.00 and found selling at parity. MI Leading Index came out weaker at 0.0% as compared to 0.3% which shows lower growth in country. The Sterling covered its losses after BoE minutes revealed that an additional member voted for a rate hike in January.

Technical Highlights:

EUR/USD: The Euro currently trading at 1.3703 levels after making a high of 1.3721 levels after dollar weakness post FOMC. Immediate support comes at 1.3650 (H4 20 Middle Bollinger) while resistance comes at 1.3735 levels (H4 20 Upper Bollinger). EURINR (62.48) exporters should cover partially at current levels and importers can cover on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.35- 62.75 today. Short term slight Bullish and Medium term Bearish

GBP/USD: The Pound is currently trading at 1.5915 levels and had received support from the MPC minutes post weak GDP release on Tuesday. Immediate support comes near 1.5890 (21 H4 EMA) followed by 1.5870(100 H4 EMA) while resistance at 1.5946 (100 Weekly EMA) followed by 1.6050 (H4 20 Upper Bollinger). GBPINR (72.60) Exporters should partially cover at current levels and importers can cover below 71 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 72.50 - 72.80 levels today. Short term slight Bullish and Medium term Bearish

USD/JPY: USD/JPY is currently trading at 82.16 levels. Trade surplus widened to 0.71T vs. 0.54T previous. Immediate resistance is at 82.55 levels (21 Daily EMA) followed by 82.70(Daily 20 Middle Bollinger) while immediate support is at 81.83 (Daily 20 Lower Bollinger). Yen Exporters can cover Feb month's exposure around 81 levels and Yen Importers to cover their exposures near 84 levels. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness for the pair.

AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading below the parity levels near 0.9950. MI Leading Index m/m came Nil vs. 0.3% previous. Immediate support comes at 0.9920 levels (55 Daily EMA) followed by 0.9830 levels (Daily 20 Lower Bollinger) while immediate resistance is at parity levels followed by 1.0030(Daily 20 Upper Bollinger). Exporters are suggested to book Feb month's exposure towards 1.0100 levels, and Importers can cover their exposure on dips. Medium term: Bullish.

Gold: Gold rebounded post dovish FOMC statement and is currently trading near 1344 levels. Overall the yellow metal had traded with a low of $1324 and high of $1346. Support for gold is near 1339 levels (21 H4 EMA and H4 20 Middle Bollinger) followed by 1320(H4 20 Lower Bollinger) and immediate resistance is at 1354.96 (100 Daily EMA). Buying on dips is recommended. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

DOLLAR INDEX: Dollar Index is currently trading at 77.75 levels .New Home Sales surged 17% in December. US Fed kept rates on hold at 0-0.25 with $600bn asset purchases continuing. Looking ahead today, Unemployment claims expected lower at 407K vs. 404K earlier along with pending home sales which is expected weak. Immediate Support at 77.60 (H4 21 Lower Bollinger) and resistance is at 78.06levels (H4 21 Middle Bollinger) followed by 78.55(Daily Fibo). Medium Term: Slight Bullish

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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