Dollar is Strong as Euro weakened for the second day after German Chancellor Angela Markel's coalition was defeated in its southwestern heartland clouding the political outlook for Europe's strongest economy. Other than that Portugal was also downgraded last Friday for a second time by S&P thus warning that the country's political crisis heightened the risk that it would be unable to refinance its debt. US Final GDP came out better at 3.1% vs. 2.8% previously. EUR German Ifo Business Climate came out better last Friday at 111.1 vs. expectations of 110.6 and M3 Money Supply y/y came out better at 2.0% vs. 1.5% previously. Violent protest continues in MENA regions and oil is trading above $105 per barrel. The yen weakened versus all of its 16 major counterparts as signs the global economic recovery is gaining momentum boosted appetite for riskier investments. Stocks fell for the first time in three days as radiation surged near the affected site and disrupts efforts to cool the cripple's nuclear reactors in Japan.
EUR/USD: Euro declined and traded near 1.4055 areas after Portugal was downgraded for a second time by S&P. warning Portugal's political crisis was accelerating. Immediate resistance is at 1.4086 followed by 1.4128 areas while immediate support is seen at 1.4030 and 1.4014 levels. Daily Stochastic is showing slight downward movement. EURINR (62.92): Exporters can cover at current levels for March exposure and importers can cover partially near 62.70 levels and on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.70 -63.10 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bullish. ECB president trichet speech due today.
GBP/USD: Sterling fell for the third session and
was trading near 1.6000 key levels after it witnessed weak data last week.
Support is seen near 1.5988 (100 Daily EMA) followed by 1.5956 (21 Lower Bollinger) and resistance is seen near 1.6085 (55 Daily EMA) followed by 1.6149. GBP/INR (71.65) March month's exporters should cover near 71.85 -72.00 regions and short term importers can cover near 71.45 levels and below. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 71.45 to 72.95 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: The Yen lost its strong momentum against dollar and finally moved away towards Y82 levels after hovering steady near Y81 levels post earthquake. Slight upside movement is still expected today near 82.00 resistance levels followed by 82.41 areas while downside movement can be near 81.30 - 81. 50regions. Yen Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 81.35 levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 81.75 - 82.00 areas. Short term Bearish
AUD/USD: Aussie was slightly steady near 1.0265 areas, near all time high levels of 1.0294 made on 25thMarch, 2011. Commodity currency was mainly supported by the recent spike in the commodity prices. Resistance comes at 1.0294 while support is seen near 1.0180 followed by 1.0100. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0175 regions. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The metal ($ 1426) declined for the third consecutive session but still upside movement is expected due to constant MENA concerns. Support is at 1422 followed by 1419 levels while resistance is seen near 1431 - 33 areas and 1447 levels . Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: DI rebounded and was trading near strong resistance levels of 76.31 after Nasdaq and S&P closed stronger last Friday. Personal Spending m/m is expected better today. Support is at 75.23 followed by key 76 areas while immediate resistance is at 76.78 and further towards 77.26 regions. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish.