The Dollar is mixed across board. US February Pending Home Sales m/m came out better at 2.1% vs. -2.8% previously and Personal Spending m/m came out better at 0.7% vs. 0.3% previously. ECB President Trichet speech boosted Euro for a fresh rally as he stated that inflation was beginning to show signs of being persistent. German political concerns and Portugal bailout suggestions are being overlooked for time being. Cable is underperforming as MPC member Posen talked down the inflation threat. Asian stocks fell as there was some concern Japan is failing to contain the nuclear crisis with the discovery of plutonium particles outside the plant. JPY Household Spending y/y came out weaker at -0.2% vs. expectation of 0.1% and Retail Sales was better at 0.1% vs. -0.4% expected. New Zealand Trade Balance came out weaker than expected at 194M. Oil fell back on rebel progress in Libya and this also encourages investors to book profits in gold.
EUR/USD: Euro's (1.4083) gains were supported by ECB President Trichet as he commented that inflation was beginning to show signs of being persistent. Immediate resistance is at 1.4105 followed by 1.4208 areas while immediate support is seen at 1.4021 levels. Daily Stochastic is showing slight downward movement. EURINR (63.05): Exporters can cover at current levels while importers can cover partially near 62.65 levels and on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.70 -63.20 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Bullish.
GBP/USD: Sterling (1.6005) was under selling pressure as MPC member Posen talked down about the inflation threat to the economy. Today market will be focused on key events from the economy with Current Account deficit expected to widen while Final GDP q/q forecasted stable at -0.6%. Support is seen near 1.5989 (100 Daily EMA) followed by 1.5940 (21 Lower Bollinger) and resistance is seen near 1.6079 (55 Daily EMA) followed by 1.6123. GBP/INR (71.65) exporters should cover near 71.80 -72.00 regions and short term importers can cover near 71.35 levels and below. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 71.45 to 72.85 levels today. Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: The pair was quiet steady hovering near 81.70 areas with strong resistance seen near 81.77 - 82.00 regions. Meanwhile, Jobless rate in Japan unexpectedly declined in Feb at 4.6% vs. 4.9% expected. Slight upside movement is still expected today near while downside movement will be supported near 81.40 - 81. 60regions. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure partially near 81.35 levels while Yen Importers can cover their exposure near 81.85 - 82.00 areas and above. Short term Bearish
AUD/USD: Aussie touched new highs again at 1.0314 before undergoing a sharp reversal towards 1.0245 levels on profit taking and weak US stocks into the close. Resistance comes at 1.0305 - 1.0325 areas while support is seen near 1.0212 which if broken can take the pair towards 1.0130 areas. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0175 regions. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: The metal ($ 1418) extended its losses for fourth consecutive session on profit booking. It touched a low at $ 1409 levels and daily Stochastic is showing some downside momentum. Currently it is trading near the support regions which if broken can take the metal down towards 1412 areas. Resistance is seen near 1420 - 25 areas and next at 1431 levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: DI was slightly lower as compared to yesterday and was trading near 76.17 levels. February Pending Home Sales came in stronger than expected at 2.1% vs. -1% previously. Support is at 76.00- 76.08 regions while immediate resistance is at 76.62 and further towards 76.76 regions. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish. Further today, CB Consumer Confidence will probably decline.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.