EUR: Euro is currently trading at 1.4788 levels Portugal arrive at an agreement with officials preparing its European Union-led bailout that will provide as much as 78 billion Euros ($116 billion) in aid and allow more time to reduce the country's budget deficit. The three-year plan set goals for a budget deficit of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, 4.5 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013 Portugal in April became the third European country to request EU support after Greece and Ireland. Looking ahead today is the Retail Sales m/m data which is expected to come better. Immediate support is seen near1.4709 (55DayEMA in H4) while the resistance is seen near1.4866. EUR/INR (66.02) Exporters can cover at current levels for May exposure while importers can cover below 64.10 and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 65.85-66.20levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
GBP: sterling is currently trading at 1.6460 levels. GBP fell sharply on comments from BoE Governor King as well as weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI. King noted that the financial crisis is far from over and economic challenges will last for many years. The comments fuelled some speculation that BoE could indeed keep rates on hold within this year. UK Manufacturing PMI dropped sharply from 56.7 to 54.6 in April versus expectation of 57.0. Looking ahead, Nationwide HPI m/m data and Construction PMI are expected weaker. Near term resistance is seen near 1.6545(55Days 4Hrs EMA) while the support is seen near 1.6365 (200Days EMA in H4). GBP/INR is at (73.36). Exporters should cover near term exposure at 73.50 levels while the importers can look to hedge partially at 73 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.10-73.55levels. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
JPY: Yen and other safe heaven currencies gains on speculation that China will introduce more tightening measures to combat inflation which resulted into the decline in commodities. Resistance is seen near 81.22 (21 days 4hrly EMA) while support is seen near 80.50 levels. Break of 80.50 supports will indicate that rebound from 76.40 was likely just a correction and the long term down trend is still in progress for another low below 76.40. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 83.50 plus levels. Short term: Slight Bullish for the pair.
AUD: Australian dollar is currently trading at 1.0803 levels after falling from the psychological resistance of 1.10 levels in the recent days. The commodity currency is in the downward pressure as gold and other major commodities decline on speculation that China will further introduce more tightening policy and RBA left the key interest rates unchanged yesterday. AIG Services Index data came out better this morning at 51.5 vs 46.5 previously. Resistance is seen near 1.0889 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA) while support is seen at 1.0717 levels (100 days 4 hrly EMA). Exporters are suggested to book exposure around 1.0900 levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0600 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Oil: Crude oil is currently trading at 110.66 levels. Oil plunges on account of rise in its stock piles in the US. The rising concerns of slump in the growth of US economy have also contributed to the decline. Resistance is seen near 111.79 levels (4 hourly 55 days EMA) while support is seen near 106.08 levels (55 days daily EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1533.11 levels. As the news of Osama bin Laden's death surfaced the speculation of a retaliatory attack on, for example US embassies strengthened the Dollar thus weakening Gold. In addition to this the speculation of an interest hike in China has added to the decline of major commodities including Gold. Resistance is seen at 1539.07 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA) and Support is seen at 1524.38 levels (55 days 4 hourly EMA). Gold seems to be in super bull phase. Medium term: Bullish
Dollar Index: Dollar Index is currently trading at 73.21, up by 0.11%. Dollar was mildly higher on speculation U.S. reports would show employers added jobs for a 15th month and growth in service industries quickened, underpinning the appeal of American assets. Factory orders which provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector rose to 3.0% in April from its previous 0.7% in March. Near term support is seen at 72.50 levels and resistance is seen near 74.18 levels (21 days Daily EMA). Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).