GBP: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6505 levels. The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent later on Thursday, after a string of disappointing data releases Yesterday which includes Construction PMI and Nationwide HPI m/m have pointed to a weak economic recovery. UK interest rates could stay on hold till year-end, in contrast to a hawkish euro zone outlook. Near term resistance is seen near 1.6550(55Days 4Hrs EMA) while the support is seen near 1.6478 (100Days EMA in H4). GBP/INR is at (73.56). Exporters should cover near term exposure at current levels while the importers can look to hedge partially at 73 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.30-73.75levels. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain bullishness.
EUR: EUR continue its bullish momentum and seems to be heading towards 1.5 psychological level after US ADP employment missed expectation and came out weaker .and its is currently trading at 1.483. the common currency has been relatively Strong in this week against dollar as supported by viewed on more rate hike from ECB president Trichet in Q3. Near term support is seen at1.4731 (55DayEMA in H4) while the resistance is seen near1.5000. EUR/INR (66.21) Exporters can cover at current levels for May exposure while importers can cover below 64.00 and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 66.00-66.50levels today. Short term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
USD/JPY: JPY is currently trading at 80.44 levels. Yen continues to appreciate as an alternative safe heaven after the fall in commodities and stocks has weakened the risk appetite of investors around the globe. Resistance is seen at 81.00 (21 days 4hrly EMA) while Support is seen near 78.46 levels. Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 83.50 plus levels. Short term: Slight Bullish for the pair.
AUD/USD: Australian dollar is currently trading at 1.0708 levels. The commodity currency is under downward pressure as gold continues its decline and Retail Sales m/m data came out weaker at -0.5% vs. 0.8%. The two-year government bond yield declined to 4.934 percent from 4.966 percent. Building Approvals m/m data came out better at 9.1% vs. -5.3% previously. Resistance is seen near 1.0809 levels (55 days 4 hourly EMA) while support is seen at 1.0500 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure around 1.0800 levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0500 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish. Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at $108.51 levels. Crude oil dropped to a two week low as US energy department data showed a surge in US oil supplies from 342 million barrels to 366.5 million barrels and on signals that the American economic growth is slowing. Also, weaker US nonfarm employment data that was released yesterday came out weaker thus depreciating oil. Resistance is seen at 110.45 levels (21 days daily EMA) while support is seen at 105.87 levels (55 days daily EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1517.98 levels. Gold plunged on the back of downgrade of China's growth outlook by Credit Suisse. In addition to this the plunge in the commodity currency AUD on account of weaker unemployment data released yesterday has also resulted into the depreciation in Gold. Resistance is seen at 1524.06 levels (55 days 4 hourly EMA) and Support is seen at 1508.31 levels (21 days daily EMA). Medium term: Bullish
Dollar Index: Dollar Index is trading at 73.12 levels. Dollar slumped to a three years low against major currencies. Yesterday US ADP employment data missed expectations. The private sector job report showed 179 k expansions in April, below consensus of 193k. Challenger report showed -4.8% y/y falls in job cuts in April. US data has been strong enough for the Fed to resume rising interest rate. Resistance is seen near 74.11 (21 days daily EMA) while support is seen near 72.86 levels. Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post July).