India Forex Advisors/ Market Commentary/2nd_August_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4265 levels. The euro collapsed vs. the dollar as the US House of Representatives approved to raise the US debt ceiling limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut spending by $2.4 trillion or more. Support is seen around at 1.4191 levels while strong resistance is seen at 1.4318 levels (21 and 55 days daily EMA). EUR/INR (62.98): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 63.50 levels while importers can cover short term exposure at 62.50 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.60 -63.30 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target 1.3800-1.4000 levels

GBP/USD: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6308 levels. Sterling collapsed tracking the weaker Euro and poor Manufacturing PMI. Support is seen at 1.6250 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.6394 levels. GBP/INR (72.08) Exporters can cover short term exposure at 72.30 while the importers can wait to hedge near 71.50 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 71.70 - 72.50 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target - 1.5800 levels

AUD/USD: The Aussie is trading currently at 1.0970 levels. The commodity currency is below the 1.10 levels today as Building Approvals m/m data came out weaker this morning. Support is seen at 1.0850 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.1078 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can partially cover their near term exposure at 1.0700 levels. Short term: bullish. Medium term: bearish. For the AUD target 1.0700 levels.

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.50 levels. The yen weakened against the dollar after appreciating to 76.28 levels on speculation Japan will intervene in the currency markets. Support is seen at around 76.97 levels while resistance is seen at 78.54 levels (21 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Importers can cover above 80.00 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Target 76 levels.

Oil: Oil is currently trading at 94.82 levels. Oil fell as ISM Manufacturing PMI data from US came out weaker then expected indicating slow growth in US. Support is seen at 92.68 levels (55 days Weekly EMA) while resistance is seen at 96.01 levels (200 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term bearish and medium term bearish. Target 95 achieved.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1620.02 levels. Gold is slight positive as weaker ISM Manufacturing data indicated slow growth in US economy. Support is seen at 1608.05 levels (55 days 4hrly EMA) while resistance is seen at around 1628.39 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish target 1650.

Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 74.30 levels. Dollar is positive against its major peers as Investors took long positions in US dollars and treasuries on the back of US House of Representatives decision to raise the US debt ceiling limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut spending by $2.4 trillion or more. Support is seen at around 73.56 levels (Trend Line support) and Resistance is seen at 74.46 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains Slight bullish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish Target 76 levels

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved. 

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