India Forex Advisors/ Market Commentary/4th_August_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4295 levels. Euro was positive vs. the dollar on speculation the US Fed will consider further monetary stimulus to counter a slowdown in the U.S. economy. Support is seen around at 1.4183 levels (trend line support) while resistance is seen at around 1.4367 levels (trend line resistance). EUR/INR (63.38): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 63.60 levels while importers can cover short term exposure at 62.80 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 62.75 -63.50 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target 1.3800 - 1.4000 levels.

GBP/USD: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6382 levels. Sterling was slight positive yesterday tracking the positive Euro. Services PMI data that came out better than expected increased the appeal of Cable. Support is seen at 1.6260 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.6437 levels. GBP/INR (72.61) Exporters can cover short term exposure at 72.80 while the importers can wait to hedge near 72.10 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 72.10 - 72.80 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target - 1.5800 levels

AUD/USD: The Aussie is trading currently at 1.0688 levels. The commodity currency continues its decline vs. the Greenback as speculation that Australian economic growth is slowing which prompted investors to bet that the central bank is likely to cut key interest rates in October. Support is seen at 1.0627 levels (100 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1.0833 levels (21 days daily EMA). Exporters are suggested to book exposure at 1.0850 while Importers can partially cover their near term exposure at 1.0600 levels and further on dips. Short term: bullish. Medium term: bearish. Target 1.0700 achieved

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 79.09 levels. The yen weakens versus the greenback after Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since March to stop the gains in the currency that threatens the nation's economic recovery. Support is seen at 78.38 levels (21 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 79.50 levels (55 days daily EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at 78.20 and Importers can cover above 80.00 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Target 76 levels.

Oil: Oil is currently trading at 92.15 levels. Oil continues its collapse in recent days on speculation that weakening global economy will result in a reduction in the fuel demand. Support is seen at around 90.68 levels while resistance is seen at 94.04 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term bearish and medium term bearish.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1666.63. Gold continues its upward trajectory as investors continue to buy gold on the back of continuity global weakness. Support is seen at around 1650 levels while resistance is seen at around 1700 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish. Target 1650 achieved.

Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 73.92 levels. Dollar weakens slightly against most of its major peers on speculation Fed can take further monetary stimulus step after the raising of the debt ceiling to spur growth in the weakening US economy. Support is seen at 73.60 levels (Trend Line support) and Resistance is seen at 74.42 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains Slight bullish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish Target 76 levels.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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