EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.3456 levels. Euro seems to be in the free fall for now vs. the US Dollar as Italy's borrowing costs on bonds continue to threaten the markets. Italy 5yr and 10 yr yield is hovering above the 7% mark which is considered dangerous levels which prompted Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek International bailouts. If ECB doesn't take drastic measures to lower the yield then contagion is likely to become a grim reality in the already fragile global financial world. Support is seen at around 1.3395 levels and resistance is seen at around 1.3530 levels. EUR/INR is at 68.51 levels. Exporters and traders have already been suggested to cover short to medium term exposure between 1.37-1.40 levels in EUR/USD leg only while Importers can cover exposure at 66.50 levels and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 68.30 and 68.95 levels for today. EUR/INR could move to 69-70 again. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.3500 achieved.
GBP/USD: GBP is currently trading at 1.5772 levels. The cable although collapsed vs. the US Dollar amid strong risk aversion in the market but it rallied vs. the Euro as worsening Euro zone crisis and soaring Euro countries bond yields continue to attract towards the Cable and Uk Gilts as an alternate safe haven. Demand for the gilts has risen dramatically and 10 yr and 30 yr yields are now trading at record lows. Yesterday CPI data came slightly lower than the expectation. Inflation is fairly above the BOE 3% annual inflation mark. It must be noted that recently BOE have increased its QE by 75 billion pounds to 275 billion pounds which is also likely to contribute to the rising inflation in UK. Support is seen at around 1.5719 levels and strong resistance is seen at 1.5992 levels (21 and 55 days weekly EMA). GBP/INR is at 80.30. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 80.00 and 80.60 levels today. GBP/INR may not fall much due to weakening rupee. Maintain short term Bearish and Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.5500 levels.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.06. Yen trading sideways but continue to rise slowly on intervention concerns as weak global outlook continue to attract Investors to this alternate safe haven. As expected BOJ kept the key interest rates unchanged in today's Monetary Policy decision. Support is seen at around 76.85 levels while resistance is seen at 77.32 (21 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short Term slight Bearish and Medium Term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Next target 76 again.
AUD/USD: The commodity currency is currently trading at 1.0084 levels. Rampant risk aversion and weaker MI Leading Index m/m data this morning curbed demand for high yielding assets like AUD. Support is seen at around 1.0000 levels and strong resistance is seen at 1.0249 levels (55 and 200 days 4 hrly EMA). Exporters have already been suggested to book covers at 1.0400 and now Importers can cover towards the parity level or below. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term: Bearish. Target: 1.0 soon almost reached.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 98.47 levels. Oil rallied on better than expected US Retail sales yesterday; easing concern that demand for oil will falter in the US. Support is seen at around 97.55 levels while resistance is seen at around 100 levels. Outlook: Short term bullish and medium term bearish. Target 90 levels again. Look at shorts at stiff resistances for medium term.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1768.07 levels. Gold weakened slightly as Investors seems to prefer the US Dollar instead of preferring the yellow metal as it is highly overbought and a strong recession is also likely to hit the gold prices strongly. Support is seen at 1747.08 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1793.05 levels. Stay away from longs until we see significant corrections. Look at initiating shorts at good resistances.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 77.95 levels. Dollar is very strong on the board and it is the most preferred choice of Investors as growing concerns in the Euro zone continues to draw Investors towards US Dollars and US treasuries. The DI is in the strong uptrend and any dips must be seen as a good buying opportunity. Looking ahead Core CPI m/m data is expected neutral and TIC Long-Term Purchases data is expected better. Support is seen at 77.52 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 78.11 levels. Short term and Medium Term: Bullish. Target 79 again.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.