EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.3775 levels. Euro weakens vs. the greenback and is under selling pressure amid continuous negative news for Euro zone. Moody's Investors Service cut Spain's government bond ratings from Aa2 to A1 with a negative outlook and yesterday said that French top credit rating is also under downgrade pressure. Although there is speculative news in the market that European officials will take steps to increase the firepower of the EFSF bailout fund in order to stem the debt crisis from spreading. Support is seen at 1.3655 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1.3937 levels (100 days daily EMA). EUR/INR is at 67.67 levels. Exporters can cover short term exposure at current levels while Importers can cover exposure at 66.50 levels and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 67.00 and 67.90 levels for today. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.3000 levels. EUR/INR should be in the range of 64.00-68.00 levels in the near term.
GBP/USD: GBP is currently trading at 1.5726 levels. The cable weakens vs. the greenback tracking weaker Euro and due to risk aversion in the market. Yesterday CPI y/y data came out at 5.2% vs. the 4.9% expected indicating that there is rise in inflation although the BOE is likely to maintain its stance that the inflation is likely to cool considering the weak global outlook. It must me noted that recently BOE has expanded its asset purchase program to spur growth in the faltering UK economy so if the economy does not grow as expected there is also a threat of a stagflation. Support is seen at 1.5678 levels (21 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1.5817 levels (55 days daily EMA). GBP/INR (77.58) Exporters can cover short term exposure at current levels and slightly higher while the short term importers can cover on dips towards 76.50 and below levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 77.20 and 77.80 levels today. Maintain short term Bearish and Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.5100 levels.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 76.70 levels. Yen rallied vs. the US Dollar, Euro and GBP as risk aversion grips the market, increasing demand for safe havens. Support is seen at around 76.13 levels while resistance is seen at 77.79 (100 days daily EMA). Yen exporters are suggested to book exposure partially towards 76.85 levels and Importers can cover above 78.00 levels. Outlook: Short Term slight Bullish and Medium Term: Maintain bearish for the pair. USD/JPY pair should range in 76-78 levels. Bounce back till 80 levels are possible. Yen exporters should cover at current levels.
AUD/USD: AUD is currently trading at 1.0274 levels. MI Leading Index m/m data came out better at 0.8% vs. the previous figure of 0.6%. The commodity currency is positive vs. the dollar tracking positive Asian indices amid speculation that European officials will take necessary steps to stem the debt crisis, increasing demand for higher yielding assets. Support is seen at 1.0167 levels (55 days daily EMA) and strong resistance is seen at around 1.0342 levels. Exporters have already been suggested to book export exposure at 1.0300-1.0400 levels and again should cover on any bounce towards 1.0200 levels and above while Importers can cover partially their near term exposure below parity and further on dips. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term: Bearish. Target 0.9500.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 88.33 levels. Oil rises on speculation that European officials will take necessary steps to stem the debt crisis and amid Bank of America better-than-estimated results yesterday, raising hopes that economic growth will stabilize. Support is seen at 85.62 levels (55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 90.57 levels (200 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term bearish and medium term bearish Target 77 levels.
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1662.25 levels. Gold in under selling pressure as strong dollar decreased its appeal as an alternate investment. Support is seen at 1602.91 (200 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1702.63 levels (55 days daily EMA). As suggested at $1800 levels, gold is in consolidation phase. Stay away from longs until we see significant corrections. Gold is Bearish short term target 1500 dollars. Look at initiating shorts at good resistances.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 77.15 levels. Dollar strengthens amid risk aversion after Moody's Investors Service cut Spain's government bond ratings from Aa2 to A1 with a negative outlook. Strong Support is seen at 76.63 levels (55 and 200 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 77.43 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains slight bullish for Short term and Medium Term: Bullish. Target is 80 soon.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.