India Forex Advisors/Market Commentary/25th_November_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook:

EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.3321 levels. Euro weakened vs. the US Dollar on concerns of continuing worsening euro zone condition. Italy 5yr and 10 yr yields again soared above 7% before Italy prepares to sell bills today. Yesterday Fitch has cut Portugal rating on exposure to high debts and due to weak outlook. Support is seen at around 1.3190 levels and resistance is seen at around 1.3439 levels. EUR/INR is at 69.47 levels. Exporters and traders have already been suggested to cover short to medium term exposure between 1.37-1.40 levels in EUR/USD leg only while Importers can cover exposure at 67-68 levels and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 69.20 and 69.95 levels for today. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term Bearish. Exporters can look at covers at 69-70 levels.

GBP/USD: GBP is currently trading at 1.5467 levels. The cable is weak vs. the US Dollar and Euro amid risk aversion in the financial market and also due to Investors turning bearish on the cable as BOE have expressed concerns on the faltering UK economy in the recent days and have also said that further expansion of QE is required to stimulate the weak UK economy. Support is seen at around 1.5500 levels and strong resistance is seen at 1.5624 levels (21 days 4 hrly EMA). GBP/INR is at 80.72. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 80.50 and 81.00 levels today. GBP/INR may not fall much due to weakening rupee. Maintain short term Bearish and Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.5500 levels achieved.

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.34. Strong Support is seen at 77.15 levels (21 and 55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 77.51 levels (100 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short Term slight Bearish and Medium Term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Next target 76 again.

AUD/USD: The commodity currency is currently trading at 0.9695 levels. Downside trajectory continues for this high yielding currency amid continuing risk aversion in the market as disagreement continues among the EU officials after German Chancellor Angela Merkel again  ruled out joint euro zone borrowing and an expanded role for the European Central Bank in stemming the debt crisis. Support is seen at around 0.9646 levels and resistance is seen at around 0.9764 levels. Exporters have already been suggested to book covers above 1.0000 and now Importers can start slow covering below 0.9400 levels. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term: Bearish. Target: 1.0 achieved. Next target 0.9400

Oil: Oil is currently trading at 96.42 levels. Oil continue its slide downwards on speculation Oil demand is likely to falter as Europe's debt crisis threatens the economy and EU concern overshadow the news of violence in world biggest crude producing nation Saudi Arabia which may destabilize the world's biggest oil exporter. Support is seen at around 95.37 levels while resistance is seen at 97.26 levels (55 days 4 hrly EMA). Outlook: Short term bearish and medium term bearish. Target 90 levels again. Look at shorts at stiff resistances for medium term.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1694.21 levels. Gold is trading sideways in a slightly down trend on the back of stronger dollar on the board which is diminishing the shine of the yellow metal in this weak global scenario. A strong recession is also likely to hit the gold  prices strongly. Support is seen at around 1676.60 levels and resistance is seen at 1721.13 levels (55 days daily EMA). As suggested at 1800 Stay away from longs until we see significant corrections. Look at Initiating shorts at good resistances. Outlook stays bearish may target 1600 soon. Look at shorts.

Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 79.12 levels. Flight to safety in US Dollar continues as soaring EU bond yields and as EU officials continue to bicker among themselves is likely to put more downward pressure on the riskier assets. Support is seen at around 78.45 levels and resistance is seen at around 79.60 levels. Short term and Medium Term: Bullish. Target 79 achieved Next target 81.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved. 

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