India Forex/ Market Commentary/28th_JUly_2011

By @ibtimes on

Technical Outlook:
EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4347 levels. The euro weakened against the dollar on speculation that the Euro zone sovereign-debt crisis will keep spreading. Yesterday German Prelim CPI m/m came out better than expectation while M3 Money Supply y/y data came out weaker than expected. Looking ahead German Unemployment data is expected better. Strong Support is seen at 1.4310 levels (21 and 55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 1.4409 levels (21 days 4 hourly EMA). EUR/INR (63.36): Exporters can cover short term exposure at 64.00 levels while importers can cover short term exposure at 62.50 and below. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.05-63.58 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. For the Euro target 1.3800-1.4000 levels.
GBP/USD: Sterling is currently trading at 1.6329 levels. The pound weakened against the dollar tracking the weak Euro and after CBI Industrial Order Expectations data came out weaker than expected yesterday. Support is seen at 1.6248 levels (55 days 4hrly EMA) and resistance is seen at around 1.6429 levels. GBP/INR (72.10): Exporters can cover short term exposure at current levels while the importers can wait to hedge near 71.20 levels. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 71.85-72.35 levels today. Short term: Bearish. Medium term: Bearish. Target - 1.5800 levels.
AUD/USD: The Aussie is currently trading at 1.1033 levels and made a new high of 1.1080 levels. The commodity currency is strong but overbought against the greenback after the Bureau of Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.9 percent in the second quarter. Support is seen at around 1.0960 levels and resistance is seen at around 1.1100 levels. Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and above while Importers can partially cover their near term exposure at 1.0700 levels. Short term: bullish. Medium term: bearish. For the AUD target 1.0500-1.0700 levels.
USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.80 levels. The Yen continues to be positive vs. the dollar due to the uncertainties surrounding the issue of raising the debt ceiling in the US. Support is seen at 77.00 levels while resistance is seen at 78.08 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Importers can cover above 78.75 levels. Outlook: Short term to medium term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Target 78 levels achieved.
Oil: Oil is currently trading at 97.15. Oil collapsed overnight on account of rising risk aversion as Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a letter to lawmakers summarizing the results of the summit on July 21 that his country opposes a blank check for the euro-area rescue fund to purchase bonds on the secondary market. Support is seen at 96.03 levels (200 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at 97.46 levels (200 days daily EMA). Outlook: Short term bullish and medium term bearish
Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1613.13 levels after making a record high of 1628.24 levels. Gold eases a little after making a high of 1628 levels as some investors booked profits on such high levels. Support is seen at around 1603 levels while resistance is seen at 1630 levels. Outlook: Medium term Bullish target 1650.
Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 74.04 levels. Dollar recovered slightly after being severely beaten down in recent days as deadlock continues on the debt ceiling issue, spurring demand for a refuge. Looking ahead Unemployment Claims data is expected better and Pending Home Sales m/m data is expected weak today. Support is seen at around 73.50 levels and Resistance is seen at 74.59 levels (21 days daily EMA). Outlook remains Slight bullish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish Target 76 levels.

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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