April 29, 2010 11:55 ET: ONE THING WE LEARNED is that ever since the intensity of the EURUSD decline in February, it HAS NEVER recovered more than 3% off its multimonth lows. SEE CHART http://chart.ly/ xhgxcv This means the pair is unlikely to break above $1.3510 from yesterdays 12-month lows before resuming towards the $1.31 figure. MOODYs SAYS Its REVIEWING GREECE SOVEREIGN RATING and downgrades more Greek banks. EURO RETRACEMENTS CONTINUE TO FAIL key trend lines as no aid is possible before the May 9 elections in Germany. Size of Aid, Timing of Disbursement and Additional Austerity remain the 3 obstacles to any extended rebound in the euro. $1.3320 stands as the immediate trend line resistance, a break of which could reflect surprise announcement and extend recovery to $1.3390. Key resistance remains at the top of the 5-week channel at $1.3530. But once again, we stick to $1.30 target before quarter-end and $1.27 before Summer end.
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