Volatility remained as driven policy changes. Equities rallied as the ECB cut interest rates surprisingly and Greece decided to cancel the referendum. Wall Street jumped with DJIA and S&P 500 gaining +1.76% and +2.20% respectively. In the commodity sector, both crude benchmarks jumped with WTI and Brent contracts rising +1.69% and +1.36% respectively. Despite improved market sentiment, the outlook remained unstable as news reports suggested that the Greek Prime Minister may need to step down. Gold rallied to 1769.5, the highest level in more than a month, before closing at 1765.1, up +2.05%. We retain our view that gold's uptrend will resume as long as global economic outlook remains uncertain and central banks maintain interest rates at exceptionally low levels.
The ECB voted unanimously to lower the main refinancing rate, by -25 bps, to 1.25% as 'some of the downside risks have been materializing, which makes a significant revision to forecasts and projections for average real GDP growth in 2012 very likely'. Given rapid deterioration in global economic outlook and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, further easing is increasingly likely next month.
Another surprise came from Greece as the Prime Minister said he has cancelled the plan of referendum as the government has secured support from the opposition for the EU plan agreed on October 27. Yet, the situation remained unstable as the Prime Minister may need to step down which may further delay the bailout.
US' data was encouraging. Initial jobless claims fell -9K to 397K in the week ended October 29, taking the 4-week moving average lower to 406K. The focus of today is the employment report for October. Non-farm payrolls probably increased +95K in October, easing from an addition of +103K a month ago. The unemployment rate would have stayed at 9.1%.